Kamal Ghorui
The monsoon forecast this year isn’t very encouraging. The good news is that India’s overall economy may be strong enough to handle it. But small farmers could have a tough time and may need help.
Weather officials say rainfall may be weaker than usual because of El Niño — when the Pacific Ocean gets warmer and India often gets less rain. They expect about 92% of normal rainfall. That may sound close to normal, but it can still cause problems. In many El Niño years, rainfall drops below 90% in some places, which is called a “deficient” monsoon.
Rain also doesn’t fall evenly across the country. Even in a good monsoon year, some states get less rain. So this year, some areas may get enough rain, while others could face dry conditions that make farming very difficult.
This matters because much of Indian farming depends on rain. The monsoon provides about 70% of the water crops need. In some states, most farms rely almost completely on rainfall. When rain is weak, crops like pulses often grow less, sometimes falling by a lot. Farmers then pump more groundwater, which lowers water levels. Reservoirs also fill less, leaving less water for irrigation and electricity.
This year, farmers already face extra trouble. Unseasonal rain in March and April damaged crops in many places. The Iran war has also reduced fertiliser supplies. If the conflict continues, diesel prices could rise, making farming more expensive.
Still, there is some hope. India’s banks and companies are in good shape, so the overall economy may not suffer too much. Oil prices could slow growth if they rise sharply, but they have stayed lower recently. Last year, agriculture helped keep the economy steady. This year, if farmers struggle, the government should step in to support them. There is also a small chance another weather pattern later in the season could bring more rain and reduce the damage.
For now, farmers may need help — and a bit of luck from the skies.
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