Kamal Ghorui
TOI correspondent from Washington: US President Donald Trump has directed aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially lasting months, after firing off a 4 am social media post asking Iran to “better get smart soon” and warning, “No more Mr nice guy.”While the bizarre post — showing a machine gun wielding Trump in aviator shades against a war backdrop, suggested more punitive military strikes in the offing, US policy, while escalatory in rhetoric, appears increasingly anchored in a grinding, open-ended strategy that stops short of all-out conflict.Behind the scenes, the administration is indicating that the US goal is to choke Iran’s oil exports, squeeze its economy, and force concessions without triggering a wider regional war, which Washington sees as a riskier alternative to a policy of “controlled suffocation.”
The blockade is already reshaping global energy flows. Shipping traffic through Hormuz has dropped to its lowest levels since the conflict began, disrupting a corridor that normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. The impact has been swift and unforgiving: US gasoline prices have surged to a record average of $4.23 per gallon, up more than 40 percent since late February, according to AAA. For American drivers, the war is no longer an abstraction—it is pain at the pump.Yet the impact is far more acute abroad than in country that can print a currency that the world buys into. India, one of the world’s largest crude importers, has scrambled to diversify supplies, leaning more heavily on shipments from Russia and the United States while drawing down strategic reserves, with price hikes imminent after the election results. Refiners in Japan and South Korea are paying steep premiums for alternative cargoes, while China has quietly increased overland imports and tapped state stockpiles to cushion the blow. Europe too faces a renewed energy crunch just as it had begun stabilizing with the deadlocked Ukraine war.Back in Washington, the administration insists the strategy is working. “Thanks to the blockade, Iran is broke,” one Trump ally said, echoing a broader argument that sustained economic pressure will succeed where diplomacy has failed. Some go further, predicting imminent collapse of Iran’s oil infrastructure—a claim that analysts view as more rhetorical than realistic.Privately, officials concede the path forward is murkier. There is little expectation of a near-term nuclear agreement, but also limited appetite for escalation. The result is a policy that risks becoming its own end state: an indefinite blockade with no clear off-ramp.Critics say that is precisely the problem. “Memes are all Trump has left in the Middle East,” one such critic wrote on X, capturing a growing chorus of frustration in Washington’s policy circles. “There’s no plan, no exit strategy, and no clarity about what success even looks like. It’s paralysis dressed up as toughness.”The critique has found echoes abroad. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has argued that Iran has “humiliated” the US in full public view – absorbing pressure without capitulating. Whether Merz’s remarks have influenced Trump into his bombastic post is unclear. The president has shown little inclination to recalibrate, doubling down instead on economic pressure while framing the conflict as a test of endurance. In his telling, time—and financial strain—are on America’s side.That narrative, however, is increasingly complicated by domestic realities. Rising fuel costs are beginning to ripple through the broader economy, pushing up transportation and food prices and complicating the administration’s efforts to shield US consumers. The White House has held talks with oil executives aimed at stabilizing markets, but officials acknowledge that as long as the Hormuz choke point remains constricted, volatility is unavoidable.For now, the war exists in a strange equilibrium: too intense to ignore, too constrained to resolve. There are no large-scale bombing campaigns dominating headlines, no diplomatic breakthroughs to signal progress—just a steady tightening of economic screws and a mounting global bill.
