Kamal Ghorui
NEW DELHI: BJP’s successful “double engine” configuration in Bengal will rid the Centre of state-level encumbrances it found difficult to navigate in ties with Bangladesh, opening space for more robust cooperation in areas like water management, border, trade, connectivity and security.Aseismic political shift in Bengal brought the Mamata Banerjee era in the state to an end on Monday, robbing the three-time chief minister of a historic fourth term — had Trinamool won, she would have become India’s longest-serving woman CM — and taking down a pillar of INDIA bloc. The stunning defeat, not just for her party but for Mamata herself — she lost Bhabanipur to Suvendu Adhikari – puts her back in opposition in West Bengal, a position where she cut her teeth as a firebrand, streetfighter politician, except age is no longer on the 71-year-old’s side. No stranger to tough challenges, Mamata, who architected Left Front’s downfall in 2011 after 34 years in office, riding on the land agitations at Singur (against the Tata Nano factory) and Nandigram, was up against anti-incumbency of her own 15-year reign this time. She had no answers. She went all-out against Election Commission’s SIR of the electoral rolls and the controversial ‘logical discrepancy’ criteria that was used in Bengal. In Supreme Court, her appearance as the ‘people’s petitioner’ showed she hadn’t lost her fight-to-theend instinct, whether the arena was a Kolkata street or a courtroom in Delhi. But SIR, as Monday’s result showed, wasn’t to be the tool that would neutralise anti-incumbency for Trinamool. The drubbing in the assembly polls came as a shocker to Mamata and Trinamool. “I do not accept this loss. I will be back,” she said. But it had become clear since the Lok Sabha election in 2019 that BJP was on mission mode in Bengal, willing to pull out all the stops to build on its record 38% vote share. In 2021, she had faced a stiff saffron challenge too that was led by Modi, but Mamata prevailed with her ‘Khela hobe’ campaign, welfare pitch and appeal to protect Bengali culture from outsiders. This time, they didn’t work despite the introduction of Yuva Sathi (a monthly assistance of Rs 1,500 for Class X passouts between 21 and 40 years old who are unemployed) and the increased allocation for the scheme for women, Lakshmir Bhandar (to Rs 1,500 a month from Rs 1,200). More than 81 lakh (over 10% of Bengal’s voters) queued up to be enrolled on Yuva Sathi. But when they queued up at polling booths, the scheme wasn’t enough persuasion to vote TMC. There were several factors weighing Mamata down like allegations of corruption against party colleagues and the teacher recruitment scam. Mamata had appealed to voters in 2021, “Every vote for Trinamool is a vote for Mamata Banerjee; forget the candidate.” It resonated. She made the same appeal this time. TMC retaining more than 40% of the vote share despite BJP sailing to 207 seats shows the message still had stickiness but not enough. Losing Bengal also weakens Mamata’s position in the opposition alliance against BJP despite TMC’s strong presence in Lok Sabha, with Congress once again likely to call the shots. Mamata will, however, take heart from the vote share. Didi is down, but not totally out.A Delhi-Kolkata alignment leading to a more responsive India on bilateral issues would likely be appreciated by Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman who wants the relationship to benefit people on both sides.However, with politics in Bangladesh often mirroring developments across the border, the BJP govt in Bengal will need to forestall any hostile majoritarianism, while exercising restraint on some of the issues on which the party’s campaign focused, including illegal immigration, threat of mass deportations, unilateral border fencing and CAA-NRC implementation.As Dhaka has stressed, ties at govt level are warming but the real challenge, amid efforts for a reset in ties, is to build a better understanding in the eyes of the public about complexities in the relationship through positive signalling.This is particularly true for India when former PM Sheikh Hasina has turned from an asset into a liability and Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami has made a dramatic comeback as the principal opposition party to the governing BNP.A strong backlash from Jamaat and hardliners in Rahman’s own party against intensified identity politics and deportations from across the border cannot be ruled out. This would be of concern to India because of the presence of a large Hindu minority in Bangladesh. The likelihood of BJP forming govt in Bengal was raised in Bangladesh Parliament last week, with an opposition NCP MP saying BJP will “push all Bangladeshis into Bangladesh”, creating a major refugee crisis for the country.The new govt also can’t be oblivious to geopolitical consequences of its actions or unfettered nationalist rhetoric on hot-button issues like illegal immigration. Seeing Dhaka slide into China’s orbit, with Beijing emerging as not just an economic, but also a major security partner for Bangladesh, will hurt India’s interests in the neighbourhood.Among the diplomatic upsides is an opportunity now for the Centre to work towards implementation of the 2011 Teesta river water-sharing agreement that was blocked by TMC chief Mamata Banerjee. The deal may not transform the relationship overnight, but can act as a significant confidence-building measure at a critical juncture in the relationship.The Centre may want to study the implications for north Bengal farmers, but not allowing the deal to go through for long will be seen by Dhaka as a major breach of trust. Progress on the Teesta agreement could also mean Dhaka being more amenable to Indian suggestions in ongoing negotiations for renewal of the 1996 Ganges water sharing treaty.The Bengal outcome will also strengthen the hands of India’s new high commissioner in Dhaka Dinesh Trivedi, a rare political appointee who is a BJP leader from the state.
