Kamal Ghorui
Four days after delivering a historic mandate and ending the 49-year duopoly of DMK and AIADMK over Tamil Nadu politics, Vijay’s TVK still finds itself in a flux. The party secured a historic 108 seats, falling just short of the majority of 118 seats. However, new entrant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, despite its newfound ties with the Congress, a long-time DMK ally, still finds itself six seats short of a majority.Interestingly, the two traditional Dravidian parties (DMK and AIADMK) which have been rivals for a longtime are also reportedly eyeing an alliance and are rallying allies to stake their own and prevent Vijay from forming the government.Now, four days after the poll results Tamil Nadu finds itself at the centre of intense political negotiations, alliance shifts, accusations, resort politics and a battle over government formation.
Here is the Tamil Nadu post-poll drama explained in 10 points:
- Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam emerged as the single-largest party in Tamil Nadu after winning 108 seats in the 234-member assembly. The DMK secured 59 seats, while the AIADMK won 47. Power in Tamil Nadu has traditionally alternated between the DMK and AIADMK for decades.
- Despite emerging as the biggest party, TVK failed to cross the majority mark of 118 seats. The party remained 10 seats short initially, creating uncertainty over government formation. The situation became more complicated because Vijay is expected to vacate one of the two seats he won, reducing TVK’s effective strength from 108 to 107.
Tamil Nadu governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar invited Vijay to Lok Bhavan but did not immediately ask him to form the government. According to ANI sources, the governor sought clarity on the “magic number” required for government formation and asked Vijay to furnish details of legislators backing TVK’s claim to form the government.- Congress extended support to TVK with its five MLAs, taking the alliance tally to 113. The move became politically significant because Congress backed Vijay instead of standing with its long-time ally DMK, triggering tensions within the Secular Progressive Alliance, with the DMK reportedly calling Congress a “backstabber”.
- TVK intensified efforts to secure support from smaller parties including PMK, Left parties, CPM and VCK. Even after Congress support, TVK’s effective tally was expected to stand at 112 after Vijay vacates one seat, still five short of the majority mark of 118.
- Several leaders, including VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan and leaders from Left parties, accused governor Arlekar of acting under pressure from the BJP-led Union government to delay or complicate the constitutional process. Many parties argued that Vijay should have been allowed to prove his majority through a floor test in the assembly.
- At the same time, Stalin reportedly held discussions with leaders of Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, CPI and CPM, whose combined six MLAs could become crucial in the numbers game.
- The rise of TVK also led to unexpected communication between arch-rivals DMK and AIADMK. Chief minister MK Stalin reportedly informed DMK MLAs that the AIADMK had reached out seeking support to form the government and prevent Vijay from becoming chief minister. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami was also expected to seek an appointment with governor Arlekar amid the political uncertainty.
- TVK also reportedly opened talks with a section of AIADMK MLAs regarding a possible power-sharing arrangement. According to ANI sources, 28 AIADMK legislators supporting senior leader CV Shanmugam were shifted to a private resort in Puducherry, fuelling speculation that sections within the AIADMK were considering support for TVK.
- Sources claimed discussions included a possible deputy chief minister’s post and key ministerial portfolios for CV Shanmugam. However, AIADMK itself appeared divided, with party general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami reportedly not agreeing to supporting TVK.
Meanwhile, TVK also moved its own MLAs to a luxury resort in Mamallapuram, where more than 50 legislators stayed under heavy police security as the party continued its post-election strategy discussions.
