Kamal Ghorui
Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after posting gains for three straight sessions, as investors closely monitored the fragile ceasefire linked to the Iran conflict and awaited the outcome of a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.As per Reuters, Brent crude futures fell 82 cents, or 0.76%, to $106.95 a barrel by 0051 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 66 cents, or 0.65%, to $101.52 per barrel.Despite Wednesday’s decline, both benchmarks have largely traded around or above the $100-per-barrel mark since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February and Tehran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz.
Ceasefire uncertainty keeps markets on edge
Oil prices had climbed more than 3% on Tuesday as hopes for a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran weakened, reducing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.The strategically important shipping route handles nearly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.Trump said on Tuesday that he does not believe he needs China’s help to end the conflict with Iran, even as tensions remained high and Tehran tightened control over the strait, Reuters reported.The comments came ahead of Trump’s scheduled meeting with Xi in Beijing on Thursday and Friday. China remains the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite pressure from the Trump administration.
Analysts warn of prolonged supply disruption
Analysts said the continued disruption in oil flows could keep prices elevated for months.“The length of the disruption and the scale of the supply loss – already more than 1 billion barrels – means oil prices are likely to remain above $80 per barrel for the rest of the year,” Eurasia Group said in a note cited by Reuters.The prolonged conflict has also begun affecting the broader global economy, especially the United States, where higher fuel costs are contributing to inflationary pressure.US consumer prices rose sharply for a second consecutive month in April, leading to the largest annual inflation increase in nearly three years. The data strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period.“The marked increase in inflation across advanced economies has yet to cause real spending to contract, but the widespread decline in consumer sentiment and hiring intentions points to worse to come,” Capital Economics said in a client note quoted by Reuters.Higher interest rates generally make borrowing more expensive and can weigh on fuel demand and economic activity.
US inventories decline amid supply concerns
Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell for a fourth consecutive week last week, while distillate stockpiles also declined, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data.Official inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration were expected later on Wednesday, with a Reuters poll also forecasting another decline in stockpiles.
