Kamal Ghorui
Global oil prices rose on Friday amid renewed fears of escalation in the Middle East after Iran released footage showing commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz and reports of heightened military activity in Tehran.Brent crude futures rose $1.23, or 1.17%, to $106.3 per barrel by early trading, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $1.07, or 1.12%, to $96.92, reported Reuters.Both benchmarks had already surged more than 3% in the previous session, reflecting mounting geopolitical risk premiums tied to the ongoing Iran conflict.
Markets react to renewed escalation fears
Investor sentiment weakened after reports suggested Iranian air defences had engaged “hostile targets” over Tehran, alongside signs of internal power tensions within the country, as per Reuters.US President Donald Trump said Iran may have reinforced its military capability during the ceasefire period, though he claimed US forces could neutralise it quickly. “The US military could eliminate it in just a single day,” he said.
Strait of Hormuz remains key flashpoint
Iran also released video showing commandos storming a large cargo vessel using speedboats, reinforcing its control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows.Analysts warned that prolonged disruption in the region could sharply tighten global supply.Mingyu Gao of China Futures said inventories could fall below five-year seasonal lows by late May or early June if tensions persist, adding a fresh risk premium to oil prices.Haitong Futures noted that the current ceasefire phase increasingly appears to be a “preparatory phase for war,” with risks of further escalation if diplomatic talks fail to progress by the end of April, as per Reuters.Trump, meanwhile, said he would not set a deadline for negotiations, stating, “Don’t rush me,” when asked about a long-term peace deal.Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire following discussions in Washington, even as Israel warned it remained prepared to resume operations against Iran.With maritime security, diplomatic negotiations and military posturing all converging, oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the region, keeping prices volatile and investor caution elevated.
