Kamal Ghorui
Weeks of conflict have worsened Iran’s economic pressures, deepening strain on its financial system even as the Islamic Republic continues to function under a standoff in the Gulf following a truce and ongoing maritime restrictions.The situation has left Iran in a stalemate with the United States and Israel, with ceasefire talks stalled while key Gulf routes remain disrupted. Despite damage to infrastructure, industries and oil exports, analysts, quoted by Reuters, say Iran is still managing internal supplies and limited external trade.“I think that they have calculated a longer runway than I think economists or Western policymakers are anticipating,” said Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East programme at Chatham House. Vakil added that Iran is relying on its internal control mechanisms and what it describes as a “resistance economy”.“They are quite known to use repressive capacity. They’re relying on people using their savings,” she said, highlighting Tehran’s approach of prioritising domestic resources and cross-border trade through land routes.The economic impact remains difficult to fully assess due to limited official data and communication restrictions, though reports suggest significant pressure on businesses, inflation and employment conditions.However, key indicators point to partial resilience. Authorities have not imposed broad restrictions on withdrawals, fuel rationing or delayed salary payments, while food availability in urban markets remains stable.Shipping data indicated that reduced crude movement from Gulf terminals, with analysts estimating that export constraints could become more severe over time depending on how long restrictions persist.A senior official at Iran’s central bank told Reuters that the country holds significant gold reserves that could be deployed if required, while also claiming Iran has long experience in sustaining imports under sanctions conditions.In the agricultural sector, analysts say Iran remains relatively resilient due to diversified supply routes and improving domestic output, which could reduce near-term import dependency. “Iran is the largest food importer in the region. But it is also important to note that Iran is the least food insecure country in the region,” said Ishan Bahnu, head agricultural commodities analyst at Kpler.Trade through neighbouring countries including Turkey, Iraq and Pakistan has continued, while Russia has also increased shipments across the Caspian Sea, bypassing Gulf shipping routes.On the domestic front, however, economic stress is visible. Businesses reported rising costs, supply disruptions and weakening demand. “Rising prices of basic goods, especially products like ours that are directly linked to people’s tables definitely put pressure on people,” said Abbas Smaeelzade, a rice and grain seller, adding that his sales have fallen sharply since the conflict escalated.Meanwhile, mechanic Hossein Amiri said customer activity has dropped significantly. “Our business has basically come to a standstill,” he said, warning of further deterioration if conditions persist.Concerns also remain over potential social unrest, with analysts noting that prolonged economic pressure could heighten instability risks. As Vakil said, a resolution would require easing sanctions to improve Iran’s access to overseas funds and international trade. She added that Tehran needs greater ability to use foreign currency holdings abroad, expand oil exports and restore normal trade channels.
