Kamal Ghorui
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to see movement based on inflation projections and rate cut expectations, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold recorded one of the sharpest weekly losses in recent years in the last week while prices plunged to four month lows at around $4099/Oz in spot yesterday.
Reasons for fall in gold prices since last week
- Higher oil prices led to inflationary fears leading to expectations of rate hikes by central banks.
- US Treasury yields remain elevated – US 10Y yields 3.93% on 3rd Mar. to 4.37 % today)
- A steady US Dollar (USD) trading above 99 continues to cap the upside for the commodity.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva had warned earlier in March that a sustained 10% rise in Oil prices for a year would push global inflation by 40 basis pointsGlobal central banks continued to buy gold in the month of January (net 5 tonnes), but momentum has eased at the start of the year, with a monthly average of 27t seen in 2025.The recent weakness in bullions has also been exacerbated by forced selling, as investors liquidate gold positions to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios rather than a deterioration in gold’s longer term fundamentalsA prolonged conflict meanwhile creates a risk for emerging market central banks to allocate less funds to buy gold during the current year as the same could be used to fund elevated oil purchases & injecting liquidity through tools like quantitative easing to boost economic growth.Geopolitical Developments
- Iran denied that it had held talks with the US to end the war, contradicting US President Donald Trump’s remarks on Monday that a deal could be reached soon.
- Moreover, Mohsen Rezaei, the senior military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said – war to continue until Iran receives full compensation for the damage.
- Adding to this, energy infrastructure in Iran has reportedly come under renewed pressure, which, along with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, assists Crude Oil prices.
Gold Price Broad Outlook (International markets)
- Weekly View: Spot Gold (CMP 4,410/Oz) – Volatile for current week, Downside Bias for 1 – 2 weeks
- Spot Silver (CMP $70.10/Oz): Bounce towards $ 73 – 74/Oz, remains a selling opportunity for 1 – 2 week
Currently gold & silver have reversed the upside trend seen since the start of the year.
- Spot Gold (CMP 4410/oz) bounced seen since yesterday from a four-month low, below $4,100 looks unsustainable on a weekly basis. Upside resistance zone $ 4520 – 4570/Oz.
- A 10 – 15 % fall in Spot prices towards $ 3800 – 3750/Oz in next 1 – 2 weeks cannot be ruled out in case Oil continues to rise on prolonged geopolitical tensions.
- Support for Silver pegged at around $ 56 – 58/Oz in Spot while resistance remains at around 73 – 74/Oz in spot.
Gold has now fallen every week since the conflict began on 28 February as elevated energy prices and geopolitical risks are increasingly being offset by higher real yields and a firmer dollar Hence gold’s direction will depend less on geopolitical headlines alone and more on how those events shape inflation, monetary policy expectations and real interest rates.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
