Kamal Ghorui
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cautioned that possible second-round effects, where supply shocks could transform into demand-side pressures, require careful and continuous assessment amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, according to the April edition of its bulletin.The bulletin noted that while the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has provided some breather to the global economy, the overall macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to persistent geopolitical tensions.It highlighted that the global macroeconomic milieu has undergone a significant shift, driven by supply chain disruptions and rising energy costs linked to the West Asia crisis. Increased volatility in commodity prices and financial markets has further added to the uncertainty.It stated, “Possible second round effects with the supply shock transforming itself into a demand shock also warrant careful and continuous assessment”.The RBI’s reference to “second-round effects” means that the initial impact of supply-side disruptions, such as higher energy costs and supply chain issues due to the West Asia conflict, could gradually spread into the broader economy and affect demand conditions as well.For instance, rising input and fuel costs can push up overall prices, which may then influence consumer spending and business activity.This transition from a supply shock to wider economic pressures, RBI said, requires careful and continuous monitoring, as it can increase risks to both inflation and growth if the situation persists and supply chains are not restored in time.While inflation currently remains within the tolerance band, the RBI noted that upside risks have increased due to supply-side disruptions, including uncertainties related to weather conditions.Despite these challenges, the central bank emphasised that strong macroeconomic fundamentals are expected to support the Indian economy and help it remain resilient in the face of such shocks.The bulletin also pointed out that the conflict intensified pressure on global supply chains in March, although some easing was observed in the first half of April.On the domestic front, economic activity showed resilience across many sectors, though some segments experienced a slowdown. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation edged up marginally in March, driven by fuel and food prices.RBI also mentioned that financial markets showed some stability following the temporary ceasefire, with money market conditions and bond yields moderating. In the external sector, a slowdown in imports and an expansion in exports helped narrow the trade deficit to a nine-month low.It added that Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows remained volatile during the period, while net foreign direct investment (FDI) turned positive in February.
