Kamal Ghorui
NEW DELHI: Latest update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on the possibility of El Nino episode later this year may be bad news for India’s monsoon. Though, experts said, it would be premature to say anything definitely at this juncture, an El Nino year usually negatively impacts rains during the monsoon.The update also said that there is a widespread global signal for above-average land surface temperatures during March-May period due to various climatic factors. This is already being felt in India which has been facing heat wave to severe heat wave conditions in many parts of the country.The IMD, meanwhile, Tuesday predicted that day temperatures are likely to remain above normal by 5-7 degree celsius over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh; by 4-6 degree C over plains of northwest India, including Delhi-NCR; Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh during the next three days.It forecast above normal day temperatures by 2-3 degree C over southeast Peninsular India during the next five days.“El Nino is expected to develop by the second half of the season. As the current predictions suggest it could be a moderate El Nino. However predictions at this time have large uncertainties. Better idea about El Nino will be known by June. So at present we need not panic but closely monitor the situation,” Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, told TOI.El Nino refers to the periodic large-scale warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It usually has the opposite effects of La Nina, which is linked to good monsoon rainfall in the Indian sub-continent.“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.“Seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management,” Saulo said.WMO Global Producing Centre last week’s forecasts indicate the chance of an El Nino increases steadily to around 40% during May-July period.
