Kamal Ghorui
Global crude oil prices are likely to decline to an average of $79 per barrel by 2027 as oil production in the Middle East gradually increases, news agency ANI reported citing the latest outlook released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).The agency said Brent crude prices, which surged sharply following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, are expected to soften over the coming quarters as supply conditions improve.“As oil production in the Middle East rises, we expect crude oil prices to fall, dropping to an average of $89/b in 4Q26 and $79/b in 2027,” the report stated.Brent crude spot prices had touched $138 per barrel on April 7 and averaged $117 per barrel during April amid supply disruptions linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The EIA said global oil inventories are expected to decline by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, keeping Brent prices elevated around $106 per barrel through May and June.The report also noted that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain high because of reduced supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the widening gap between US domestic gas prices and international markets.“Global LNG prices remain elevated as a result of reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with a wide spread between U.S. domestic natural gas prices and international markets,” the report said, news agency ANI quoted.The EIA further highlighted developments in the US LNG sector, noting that American export capacity rose by around 0.9 billion cubic feet per day in April, driven by the first shipment from Golden Pass LNG’s Train 1 and additional output from Corpus Christi Stage 3.Corpus Christi Train 6 is also expected to begin operations in summer 2026, adding another 0.2 billion cubic feet per day of export capacity.However, the agency cautioned that long development timelines for new export infrastructure may limit faster expansion in US LNG exports.The report also incorporated changes within OPEC after the United Arab Emirates formally exited the oil producers’ group from May 1, 2026.“OPEC production numbers in this outlook exclude data from the UAE, both for historical and forecast periods,” the report stated.Following the UAE’s exit, the EIA revised its estimate for OPEC’s spare production capacity, which is now projected to average 2.5 million barrels per day in 2027, lower than the earlier estimate of 3.8 million barrels per day.The report comes amid continued volatility in global energy markets due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in Middle East.
