Kamal Ghorui
Guwahati: From Himanta Biswa Sarma to Gaurav Gogoi, from Badruddin Ajmal to Akhil Gogoi, Assam’s next political narrative will take shape on Monday as the state gears up for counting of votes.While a clear mandate for the NDA will strongly reinforce CM Himanta’s stature, as it is the first assembly polls fought under his leadership, it will also act as an approval of his campaign model, built around infrastructure expansion, welfare delivery, improved connectivity, and a politics focused on protecting indigenous identity.However, a win for the Congress-led opposition alliance, much to the credit of APCC president Gaurav, will mean a major upset as the odds are stacked against the opposition bloc. Gaurav, who played a major role in bringing together the six-party alliance with Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), Raijor Dal (RD), All Party Hill Leaders’ Conference, CPM and CPI-ML (Liberation), had been the primary target of the NDA bloc during campaigns and rallies.According to political analysts, a victory for the opposition will be seen as a major revival for Congress in the northeast, while leaders of the grand old party exuded confidence that the alliance will win at least 70 out of 126 seats, claiming majority.While Himanta remained tight-lipped after landing at Guwahati airport from a personal trip to Japan, sources said he had held a video conference with NDA candidates and had also reviewed the electoral situation through a virtual meeting.BJP state president Dilip Saikia said the NDA was expecting a decisive mandate and projected a tally of around 100 seats in the 126-member assembly. “We will get an unprecedented and historic mandate this time. We have done the preparations across districts and constituencies,” Saikia said.With BJP contesting in 90 seats, Saikia said, “We are expecting at least 20 more seats from our alliance partners, AGP and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF).”BPF, led by Hagrama Mohilary, has become a key NDA ally in the state after they joined the ruling bloc on the back of their commanding performance in the recently-held council polls. BPF will be vying for 11 assembly seats out of 15 in the Bodoland Territorial Council region and a major percentage of the NDA’s success will depend on them.With the state marking its first assembly polls after the delimitation exercise in 2023, many analysts believe the redrawn constituencies may work to BJP’s advantage. The number of seats in lower Assam and the Barak Valley, where Muslim voters have been a decisive factor, has come down to 22 from 35. In several of these seats, BJP’s ally AGP has their fielded candidates.Congress and its allies believe anti-incumbency, resentment over polarisation politics, local grievances and allegations of corruption against Himanta will help them recover their lost ground. The grand old party is also banking heavily on support from the Muslim-majority constituencies in lower and southern Assam and tea garden voters in upper Assam, who once formed a strong base for the party.“The opposition parties or people of Assam have not fallen into the trap of exit polls. We will form the govt. Let’s wait till May 4,” said Gaurav.AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal said his party was committed to help form an anti-BJP govt and expressed confidence that they will win 25 of the 29 seats in which they have contested. Ajmal, one of the most prominent Muslim political leaders, is contesting from Binnakandi in central Assam, his home turf.
