Kamal Ghorui
NEW DELHI: BJP‘s super-majority win in a string of assembly polls, capped by its maiden victory in West Bengal with over two-thirds seats, and its rising number in Rajya Sabha will all but allow the party to dictate terms in next year’s presidential election, after its loss of majority in Lok Sabha polls had raised doubts over its dominant run since 2014.Its overwhelming domination of assemblies with allies in big states, like Maharashtra, Bengal and Bihar – three assemblies with maximum weight among states after UP in the electoral college for president – will be effective in neutralising the loss it has suffered in LS where its tally fell from 303 to 240 in 2024. All elected members of Parliament and assemblies, which leave out nominated lawmakers, make up the electoral college. Parliament and assemblies have equal voting share, but while the vote of every MP has the same value (it was 700 in 2022), the weight of an MLA’s vote varies depending on the size of population (as per 1971 census) his assembly represents.A UP MLA’s vote at the value of 208 was almost 30 times that of a Sikkim MLA’s, with the value of 7 in 2022. The figure is likely to remain more or less the same next year as the census figure is a constant and so is the strength of an assembly, barring vacancies. The existence of J&K assembly, which was dissolved in 2018 and was not part of the last presidential election, will be a factor, though marginal.The fall in its LS tally dented BJP’s votes by 44,100 in the electoral college, which had a total strength of 10,86,431 in 2022. A poor run in assembly polls could have compromised its authority to dictate the terms, even with allies, as has been the case with previous govts when the principal party, be BJP or Congress, was short of majority.After the LS poll, when BJP depended on TDP and JD(U) to cross the 272 mark for majority, the opposition was quick to dub the two regional parties as its “crutches” for survival and predicted that govt will fall soon, claiming that the result will prove to be inflection point in its strong run since 2014 and assembly polls will bring grimmer tidings.Over two years down the line, BJP is sitting pretty.
UP holds key in Prez polls with over 83,800 vote weight of MLAs
All elected members of the Parliament and assemblies which leave out nominated lawmakers make up the electoral college. Parliament and assemblies have equal voting share, but while the vote of every MP has the same value (it was 700 in 2022), the weight of an MLA’s vote varies depending on the size of the population (as per 1971 census) his assembly represents.A UP MLA’s vote at the value of 208 was almost 30 times that of a Sikkim MLA’s, with the value of 7 in 2022. The figure is likely to remain more or less the same next year as the census figure is a constant and so is the strength of an assembly, barring vacancies.The fall in its LS tally dented BJP’s votes by 44,100 in the electoral college, which had a total strength of 10,86,431 in 2022. A poor run in assembly polls could have compromised its authority to dictate the terms, even with allies.After the LS poll, when BJP depended on TDP and JD(U) to cross the 272 mark for majority, the opposition was quick to dub the two regional parties as its “crutches” for survival and predicted that govt will fall soon, claiming that the result will prove to be the inflection point in its strong run since 2014.Over two years down the line, BJP is sitting pretty. It won Haryana comprehensively against odds and NDA’s strength in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly has zoomed to 237 from over 150 during the last presidential polls and surged to 202 from 125 in 243-member Bihar assembly. It has now 207 MLAs in West Bengal compared to 77. Before the presidential polls in July next year, the most important is UP for its sheer weight of over 83,800 votes in the electoral college.
