Kamal Ghorui
Among the four states and one Union Territory that have voted or are voting this month, Tamil Nadu is probably the most difficult to assess. The competition in other states is between familiar players, but the entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) adds a big unknown to the equation.
Is Tamil Nadu’s electoral arena, defined by the dominance of the DMK and the AIADMK as two nodes, in a moment of transition? The immediate temptation is to see Vijay as part of Tamil Nadu’s long tradition of cinema-to-politics transitions, seen in figures such as M G Ramachandran, J Jayalalithaa, and, more recently, Vijayakanth, as well as Chiranjeevi and Pawan Kalyan in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. But it is more important to understand how his presence may be reshaping the competitive equilibrium of state politics. The 2021 elections happened in the shadow of J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi’s deaths, the two emotional anchors sustaining the bipolarity of this system. It is into this opening that Vijay has stepped in.
Besides the comparisons with past cinema crossovers, some are also asking whether Vijay might meet the same fate as Prashant Kishor in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections.
Kishor, like Vijay, positioned himself as an outsider promising systemic change. He sought to transcend deep-seated political cleavages and appeal directly to voters disillusioned with existing parties. Yet, his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) struggled to convert visibility into electoral traction. To be sure, Vijay brings mass popularity and a pre-existing cultural connection with voters. His films, often laced with anti-establishment messaging, have cultivated a constituency that sees him as an outsider capable of disrupting entrenched elites.
Opinion polls in the past few months have given varying estimates of his party’s popularity — some indicating around a quarter of voters and others indicating half of that. However, these polls have been consistent on the support base, which is largely urban and semi-urban youth, sections of the lower middle class, women, a segment of Christians and Muslims, and those generally disillusioned with both DMK and AIADMK.
The history of Tamil Nadu politics offers a cautionary tale in the form of Vijayakanth. When Vijayakanth launched the DMDK in the mid-2000s, he too was seen as a disruptor. In the 2006 assembly elections, DMDK secured a significant vote share, and by 2011, as part of the AIADMK alliance, it won enough seats to even become the principal opposition party. However, DMDK declined from an 8.4% vote share in 2006 to 2.4% in 2016, and eventually to an irrelevant 0.43% in 2021.
Whether TVK will follow DMDK’s trajectory is a moot question at this moment. Vijay’s appeal is qualitatively different from Vijayakanth, but whose chances will his success hurt more?
The answer is not straightforward. Some believe the AIADMK-led bloc may be more vulnerable because Vijay’s appeal overlaps more with the anti-incumbent, floating voters who might otherwise oscillate between the DMK and AIADMK alliances depending on context. They further argue that in the absence of a figure like Jayalalithaa, Vijay’s outsider appeal and anti-establishment rhetoric may resonate particularly with disillusioned AIADMK supporters.
At the same time, DMK is not immune. In 2021, the difference between AIADMK and DMK was relatively narrow in terms of vote share. AIADMK did not underperform as much as was expected. Subsequent realignments and consolidation of different factions under the leadership of EPS or Edappadi Palaniswami, including the return of T T V Dhinakaran to the AIADMK fold, may also have some bearing on electoral arithmetic in specific regions. Such shifts could help consolidate sections of the vote base that had previously been fragmented. Furthermore, the anti-incumbent sentiment over employment, cost of living and local infrastructure, among other things, creates openings for TVK to make inroads. Vijay’s non-ideological messaging allows him to attract fence-sitters across party lines, without antagonising any group, especially those DMK voters who may not be still willing to cross the ideological line. In closely contested constituencies, particularly in semi-urban pockets, even a small erosion of DMK support could have a far-reaching effect.
However, popularity alone can take TVK so far. A party requires booth-level presence, cadre mobilisation, and credible local candidates. Tamil Nadu’s political system remains deeply structured by party organisations, welfare networks, and alliance arithmetic. Moreover, the logic of bipolar competition exerts its own pressure. As elections approach, voters often revert to strategic calculations, choosing between the two alliances most likely to form the govt. The results on May 4 will show whether Vijay’s star power can translate into political power and breach TN’s entrenched duopoly.
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