Kamal Ghorui
The US has started blocking ships near the Strait of Hormuz, an important sea route where about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. Iran had already been stopping many ships for about 45 days. During that time, only ships carrying oil from Iran were moving freely. Iran even managed to sell more oil than usual. Some rules were also relaxed to allow oil that was already at sea to be sold. Because of this, global oil prices did not rise too much.
Now the US is blocking ships connected to Iran. This means both sides are squeezing this narrow sea route. Iran warned that Americans might soon miss cheap gasoline, which usually costs about $4–$5 per gallon.
This warning makes sense. Oil prices had dropped after a short ceasefire, but they jumped again by about 7% yesterday. If fighting starts again, oil prices could go above $120 per barrel. If the US stops ships carrying Iranian oil, Iran may respond by attacking other ships with drones or missiles. It could also strike oil and gas facilities in the Gulf, which would reduce supply for months or even years. Iran’s allies in Yemen might also attack ships in the Red Sea, making things worse.
Before the conflict, about 130 ships passed through the Strait every day. Could the US navy safely escort 100 ships daily? Can it protect every single one? Insurance for ships is already very expensive. Many ship owners may not want to risk being attacked, even with US protection.
On the other side, what can the US do about ships carrying Iranian oil? It cannot easily sink them, because that would cause huge oil spills and damage the environment. Seizing them would also be difficult, since much of Iran’s oil goes to China. The last time the US pressured China, it created other problems. Also, the US president has an upcoming visit to China, which makes things more complicated.
The US may want the conflict to end quickly because high oil prices cause inflation. That makes voters unhappy and could hurt the ruling party in elections. But expecting Iran to give up easily is unrealistic. Both sides may believe they are stronger than they really are. The better way to end the conflict is through talks, not more fighting.
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