Kamal Ghorui
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices lack an immediate bullish bias, though the current phase is more consolidative than corrective, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold has witnessed a modest decline lacking bullish conviction amid mixed cues as USD strength persists ahead of the US Fed decision.
- Gold, after posting seventh straight month of gains, in February rising by 7 – 8%, has seen a modest decline since the start of March with spikes in oil prices leading to inflationary fears pushing rate cut expectations lower in 2026.
- Gold remained squarely in a $5,000 – $5,200/oz range seen over the past three weeks, as bullion prices took mixed cues from the Iran conflict with rise in bond yields and dollar have broadly weighed on sentiments.
- Oil prices saw a surge to almost $120 per barrel for the first time since 2022 as the war with Iran entered its third week, fueling concerns about renewed global inflation.
- The surge in energy prices complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, reinforcing expectations that rate cuts may be delayed and increasing the risk of stagflation, particularly after last week’s weak jobs report.
- Meanwhile, Silver which tumbled to below $80 per ounce since last week, recovered mildly but direction remained unclear amid ongoing geopolitical conflict.
- Hawkish implications of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East revived the US Dollar (USD) demand following the overnight pullback from its highest level since May 2025 & contributed to keeping a lid on the spot gold pair.
- Traders however, opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday before placing directional bets around Gold. Moreover, policy updates by other major central banks – the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the Bank of England (BoE) could influence the prices during the latter part of the week.
Gold Price Outlook :
Gold is expected to remain range bound as focus remains on US macro cues due this week which may offer fresh direction to precious metal complexWeekly View:Spot Gold (CMP $ 5010/Oz) – Sideways move with support to persist around $ 4,850 – 4,870/Oz on a weekly basis.Safe-haven demand which had initially lifted gold after the eruption of US Iran conflict has receded due to inflation shocks seen from rising dollar & bond yields which had also shifted investors attention to major central banks policy trajectories, weighing on sentiments. While geopolitical uncertainties remain a key for limited downside in gold, major central banks actions, or stances, this week may remain the critical factors which could impact gold market sentiment.While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, its updated projections, particularly a higher inflation outlook, could shift investor expectations of its future rate path and prompt further repositioning in gold. Market participants anticipate downward revisions to growth forecasts which combined with rising inflationary outlooks, stagflation concerns may resurface which makes gold to perform well in such scenarios.The current trend in gold is being viewed as a consolidative pause rather than corrective phase where recent pullback appears to be a healthy retracement within the broader bullish structure. This current decline could extend up to $4870 – 4850/Oz on a weekly basis but that level offers a constructive area to accumulate the yellow metal from a long term perspective of 1 – 2 months.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
