Kamal Ghorui
We are in very confusing and irrational times today.
We have 2 major powers (Russia & USA) caught in wars with countries – the consequence of which the leadership of both nations have not thought thru. We have Russia caught in the Ukraine war and we now have USA caught in Iran & Israel dynamics. The third major power – China is watching from the sidelines, rubbing it’s hands with glee at the turn of events.
While the Top Leader of Russia, may look secure on his position – one cannot say the same for the USA Top Leader. The USA Congressional elections could throw up a huge surprise in November 2026 which could shackle the Leader’s freedom of action.
We keep hearing that the Europe end of the NATO alliance is funding the Ukraine resistance. The burden of this Ukraine war funding on Europe may be one of the reasons that Europe is not intervening or helping the USA in the Iran war. After all, Europe made itself a welfare state by reduced defence spendings. It’s safety net of social security could get impacted.
War is an expensive business (weapons which are worth millions, logistics costs, costs of technology used, human costs, infrastructure destruction costs, etc). The issue of world trade is directly impacted by the USA / Israel – Iran war.
Both these wars – by the intensity and ferocity with which they are fought are going to be very costly wars. Russia – Ukraine war is lesser cost to the World, though both countries are and will pay a big price. USA / Israel – Iran is a war that will cost the World a lot, whether you are involved directly or not – thanks to energy & fertilizer costs. A small country like Israel cannot fight on multiple fronts – Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, militias etc. A Key question that needs to be answered – ‘who is funding these wars?’ and what are the consequences.
The entire world population is funding this wanton destruction that is happening. The World population is funding thru inflation, thru taxes, thru shifts of funds into Defence and aggressive technology for control – moving funds away from social sector spending, education, science & technology beneficial to mankind, improved agriculture seeds and techniques. Activities such as control of deserts spread and afforestation will reduce in many areas of the World. Costs of basic goods will rise disproportionately.
The biggest costs across nations will be shift of funds away from human benefit activities to muscle power military activities. The ‘military -industrial complex’ that a past USA President warned about will get strengthened – receiving oxygen and money. Industries that feed the war machine will gain. Industries not under the war machine empire will stutter and lose.
Energy costs are the main costs under pressure today. Clean energy for the masses could come under attack and the World in the short term may need to take a relook at the supposed dirty and polluting energy source of coal. How quickly is the World (more particularly, India) able to shift to alternates – nuclear and renewable sources of Energy? Energy – whether Oil or Gas is India’s Carotid arteries. We can collapse if these are squeezed and Energy needs are our biggest imports. We have a scissors blade attack playing out on Energy – inadequate supplies due to maritime routes being blocked and higher prices due to Iran / Middle East war playing out which has disturbed production infrastructure and therefore lower output.
All over the World Agriculture products – basic or processed are going to be impacted due to major maritime routes being impacted, longer lead times and costlier freight. Food security subsidy costs will jump.
One nation watching all this play out with great interest is China. As a political entity / country China has always believed that it has 2 enemies – religion / theocracy and democracy. Both these concepts are anathema to the Chinese mind and Leadership. In the Iran / USA – Israel war, it is seeing theocracy and democracy destroying each other. In the Russia / Ukraine fight, it is seeing 2 democracies (both countries have elections) destroying each other. It is quietly playing a wait and watch game, knowing that all these nations will tire. When USA – Russia – entire Mid East and Iran tire, China will make it’s big moves. China as a very powerful and Top nation has been given a leg up – by at least 15 years by both these wars.
Assuming that nuclear annihilation does not take place, the World after these 2 wars come to an end could be standing at the edge of a better Dawn. The democracies of the World like USA, EU, UK, Russia, India, Japan & Korea could have a relook at their energy dependence and trade routing logistics. I am convinced that the next round of technology upgradation for mankind benefit is waiting.
An ideal situation would be that any Nation manages it’s Food and Energy needs independently, without recourse to any other nation. This is particularly relevant to India. For basic needs – indigenous output for additional wants – trade benefits. Nations will need to look within for Food and Energy, so that external wars cannot impact basic human needs. That would be the best usage of technology and as a nation, India does have some sort of a head start in this, though the way ahead has hurdles. Many of the hurdles are because of the way we are. We don’t encourage enterprise and technology.
This hope of technology upscaling and implementation, superior products thru R&D, clean national energy is the silver lining to the current dark clouds.
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