Kamal Ghorui
US stock markets rallied sharply on Wednesday while crude oil prices plunged toward $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions, AP reported.The S&P 500 surged 2.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,332 points, or 2.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.9% in early trade, tracking strong gains across European and Asian markets.The rally followed Trump’s decision to pull back from escalation shortly before a deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route.Oil prices saw a steep correction, with US benchmark crude falling 17.7% to $92.92 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 16.1% to $91.68. Prices had earlier spiked above $119 amid peak war concerns.Despite the sharp gains, markets remain below pre-war levels, and risks persist if tensions flare up again, which could disrupt oil flows and keep energy prices elevated.“There is a reason to be optimistic, but it is still too early to tell, because, as you know, after all, it is Trump,” said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at MONEX.Analysts said the ceasefire has reduced immediate uncertainty, but questions remain over its durability and whether it will lead to sustained stability in energy markets.“Is it just kicking of the can down the road, moving the goalposts, TACO Tuesday, or whatever metaphor we’d like, to only to have tempers flare and bombs drop again?… Who knows? But it’s good enough for now to elicit a positive response from the markets,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management.Global markets rallied in tandem, with South Korea’s Kospi rising 6.9%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 5.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbing 3.1%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX advanced 4.9% and France’s CAC 40 rose 4.7%.On Wall Street, companies sensitive to fuel costs led gains. United Airlines jumped 12%, Delta Air Lines rose 8.2% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings, and Carnival surged 13.7%.In the bond market, US Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.26% from 4.33%, as cooling oil prices raised expectations that the Federal Reserve could resume rate cuts.Traders now see nearly a 39% chance of rate cuts in 2026, according to CME Group data, as easing energy prices reduce inflation risks.However, oil markets remain sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, with future price trends depending on how smoothly tanker traffic resumes and whether geopolitical tensions remain contained.
