Kamal Ghorui
Is his pause the beginning of the end of the Iran conflict, or just the end of the beginning?
Trump’s abrupt pivot on targeting Iran’s power and energy infra, marked by a five-day pause, has landed like a pressure valve release, on a world bracing for escalation. The reaction was swift and telling. Oil price, the ever-nervous barometer of geopolitical anxiety, exhaled. Brent crude plunged over 7%, slipping to $104 per barrel, while bruised equity markets appear poised for a rebound after weeks of relentless sell-offs. The recent carnage, especially yesterday, with Sensex down 12.7%, and Nikkei shedding 10% over a month, may finally give way to a cautious rally. US stock futures were climbing at the time of writing this.
Any interruption, even a partial and uncertain one, in a conflict that seemed to be hurtling toward a wider conflagration is, undeniably, welcome. Trump’s earlier ultimatum to Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, had raised the spectre of a critical chokepoint snapping shut. Now, with Trump suggesting Tehran is open to a deal, a narrow diplomatic window may have emerged. That channel, however fragile, must be sustained and broadened. This is where intermediaries like European powers, and India, can step in, shoring up what remains an uncertain backchannel.
Uncertainty, in fact, is the defining feature of this moment. Trump’s famously mercurial approach, leaves allies and adversaries alike guessing. The fog of war is thick with “unknown unknowns”, to borrow a phrase from American strategic lore. Iran, for its part, denies any talks with Washington, though such denials may well be tactical. There are hints of possible fractures within Tehran, between its military establishment and diplomatic corps. Which faction ultimately shapes policy could determine the trajectory ahead.
Israel’s silence adds another layer of ambiguity. Will it align with Washington’s pause, or pursue its own strategic calculus? Meanwhile, Trump has conspicuously stopped short of ruling out strikes beyond energy targets, keeping the threat matrix alive.
Three paths now lie ahead. The most optimistic sees an extension of the pause, evolving into a broader de-escalation, contingent on Israeli cooperation. A middle path involves a partial American disengagement while Israel and Iran continue hostilities, containing the crisis but not resolving it. The worst-case scenario envisions continued Iranian strikes in the Gulf, triggering wider regional involvement, and potentially dragging US back in with greater force. Remember, by the end of the five-day period, 4,500 US marines will reach the conflict zone. This moment, then, sits delicately, between resolution and relapse. It may mark the beginning of the end of this conflict, or merely the end of its beginning.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-march-23-2026/#liveblog-entry-3785222
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