Kamal Ghorui
Shockwaves from the Strait of Hormuz supply disruption are rippling across global oil markets, setting off a frantic race to rush in crude. As availability tightens, refiners and traders are scrambling against the clock to lock in cargoes that can be delivered without delay, intensifying competition for every available barrel. Out of 40 bids placed for cargoes, only four were matched, with deals for near-term delivery crossing $140 per barrel, an unprecedented level.Further more, the pressure is not limited to one region. According to Bloomberg, refiners are increasingly turning to distant and unconventional sources, highlighting the scale of the supply gap expected in the coming weeks. The disruption stems largely from reduced flows from the Middle East, which has left a growing deficit in global crude availability.“There is simply a shortage of crude,” Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta Commodities AS told the financial daily. “Physical Brent is a mess and has now risen too far. At this rate even European refiners will have to lower utilization, perhaps as early as next month.”Rising crude costs are now forcing difficult choices. Traders indicate that European refiners may soon have to follow their Asian counterparts in scaling back operations, a move that could stabilise crude markets but worsen shortages of key fuels such as diesel and jet fuel.Futures slide even as physical prices surgeThe tightness in physical supply stands in sharp contrast to movements in futures markets. While immediate crude prices have soared, futures for June delivery fell 13% this week, settling at about $95 per barrel, supported by hopes surrounding a ceasefire involving Iran.Although there were early indications of tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, overall traffic remains significantly below pre-conflict levels. Even if flows resume fully, any relief will take time to materialise, as shipments from the Gulf require weeks to reach major refining hubs.“The final cargoes that transited the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict are now arriving at their destinations. This is where the paper traded markets are meeting physical reality, and the 40-day gap in global energy flows is truly exposed,” Sultan al Jaber, chief executive office of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., said in a Linkedin post on Thursday.The widening gap between immediate supply and future expectations is also reflected in pricing benchmarks. Dated Brent, the key indicator for physical crude, surged to a record $144 per barrel earlier in the week before easing to $126 by Friday. Even then, it remained more than $30 higher than June futures.At the same time, premiums for prompt cargoes have escalated sharply. Traders including Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group are offering more than $22 above Dated Brent for North Sea shipments scheduled for late April and early May. Nigerian cargoes for next month have been priced as high as $25 above the benchmark, compared with less than $3 before the Iran conflict began.Global trade flows shift as buyers scramble for supplyThe search for crude has also redrawn global trade patterns.Asian buyers, particularly those reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, are diversifying supply sources. Japanese refiners are increasing purchases from the United States, where exports have reached record highs. Chinese demand has pushed shipments from Vancouver to a new monthly peak, while Indian refiners have expanded imports from Venezuela. In the first week of April alone, nearly 6 million barrels were loaded for India, double the volume recorded during the same period in March.Speed of delivery has become a critical factor. Japanese buyers are opting for smaller vessels to transport US crude, allowing them to pass through the Panama Canal and reduce transit times.On Saturday, US President Donald Trump posted on social media about the “massive numbers” of oil tankers heading to the US to load its oil. Meanwhile, Midland WTI at Houston has risen to a premium of nearly $4 per barrel over the US benchmark, about four times higher than before the conflict, reflecting the added value of quicker access to supply.Refiners strain under rising costs and supply gapsThe current market structure, where immediate deliveries command higher prices than future contracts, is placing significant strain on refiners. Smaller operators, in particular, are facing rising financing costs and difficulties in managing price risks, as the cost of physical crude far exceeds that of derivative benchmarks.“It’s a massive price risk management headache — on paper the margins are fantastic, but the real cashflows of buying a cargo and deciding to refine it can be quite different,” Roberto Ulivieri, a consultant at Midhurst Downstream and former refining economist for Saudi Aramco, was cited by Bloomberg as saying.As a result, some refiners are beginning to withdraw from the market, which could further tighten supplies of refined fuels. Prices for jet fuel and diesel have already surged past $200 per barrel, while US gasoline inventories have dropped to their lowest level in nearly 16 years, according to the Energy Information Administration.With demand increasingly shifting towards US supplies, analysts caution that the strain could soon extend there as well.“Physical markets are not taking their cues from social media. Instead, they have strengthened relentlessly as disruptions have spread from Asia to the Atlantic basin,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultant Energy Aspects. “If futures don’t catch up to the physical realities, US exports could easily remain elevated, vessel availability permitting, to the point where there isn’t enough crude left for US refineries.” With the Middle East war ongoing and peace talks yeilding no results, uncertainty continues to grip the region. US Vice President JD Vance said peace talks with Iran in Pakistan failed after over 20 hours of negotiations. He added the US entered the talks “in good faith” but could not reach an agreement with Tehran.
