Kamal Ghorui
Iran & Houthis are gearing up for US ground troops. That could be real bad news for the world
A month into the Iran war, three things strongly hint at a possible US ground invasion. First, American troop deployments are increasing. Reports suggest Pentagon is drafting plans for weeks-long ops. These options, reportedly, include limited coastal raids, and the seizure of strategic Iranian islands, in Strait of Hormuz, and potentially even Kharg Island in Persian Gulf. Such moves would mark a huge bet on boots-on-the-ground engagement, a transition that, usually, means a deeper, more dangerous phase in wars. Of course, this will also intensify global energy shocks, and multiply casualties across all sides.
Second, IRGC has lowered the volunteer age for joining the war effort, to just 12. The announcement is stark and symbolic, in terrifying ways. It signals Tehran’s expectation of a drawn-out confrontation, and the possibility of a manpower shortage. Nations rarely widen recruitment pools, unless they anticipate attrition on a large scale. The message is clear: Iran is preparing for endurance, not just retaliation.
Third, Houthis in Yemen entered the war over the weekend, on Tehran’s behalf. Would that include renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping? If that happens while Iran disrupts traffic through Strait of Hormuz, consequences for global energy markets could be severe. Together, these waterways handle a massive share of the world’s oil flows. Experts have warned that oil price at or beyond $150 per barrel, will deliver huge shockwaves through inflation and supply chain disruptions. Houthis appear to be signalling Washington: any ground operation risks triggering a wider economic confrontation.
But what would be the endgame of a ground invasion? Regime change in Tehran appears to have receded as an immediate objective. A more plausible aim: securing Hormuz. That’s something Gulf Arab states increasingly favour, after witnessing Iran’s disruptive leverage. Yet, Tehran now insists on full sovereignty over Hormuz, and seems prepared to fight for it. Question, then, is: how long can Gulf states withstand sustained Iranian missile and drone strikes?
Most worryingly, Trump’s objectives are unclear. Statements shift weekly, leaving allies and adversaries guessing. Some American conservatives, uneasy about the conflict, now argue for finishing the job quickly. Others believe weakening Iran could dismantle Tehran’s network of allied militias, and reshape regional alignments. Mind you, all of this is guesswork by politicians and experts, who don’t know what White House is thinking, which, in turn, may not know what, really, it wants anymore.
END OF ARTICLE
