Kamal Ghorui
Iran war enters a troubling stage, where most likely outcomes look more destabilising than US planned for
If war is a game of chess, Iran conflict has moved beyond its opening gambits into a tense, intricate middle game – where every move carries layered consequences, and no outcome is guaranteed. The early phase was dramatic and decisive: US and Israel eliminated Ayatollah Khamenei, in a stunning strike. That momentum continued. On Tuesday, Ali Larijani, a key figure in Iran’s national security establishment, was killed. Soon after, intelligence minister Esmaeil Khatib met a similar fate. Israel has hinted more such moves are coming, keeping adversaries guessing. Meanwhile, a US naval vessel – believed to be carrying marines – edges closer to West Asia, fuelling speculation of a possible ground operation inside Iran.
Nearly three weeks into the conflict, certain realities are becoming clearer. First, air power alone – even when precise and relentless – rarely delivers regime change. History offers no convincing example of regimes collapsing solely under aerial assault. While Iran’s leadership has been significantly degraded, and institutions like Basij are under pressure, the system has shown resilience. New figures are stepping in, almost as quickly as others are removed, suggesting depth within the regime’s structure.
If outright regime change through military strikes seems unlikely, the alternative being floated is more volatile: internal collapse via civil unrest. Both Trump and Netanyahu have called for Iranians to rise against their leadership. Netanyahu’s appeal to public celebrations like Nowruz may not be cultural – it may be strategic, hoping that gatherings could ignite dissent. Yet, recent history tempers such expectations. Protests earlier this year were met with brutal force, reportedly leaving tens of thousands dead. Though weakened, the regime still commands powerful instruments of repression. An uprising, if it occurs, could spiral not into reform – but into chaos.
And that chaos would not remain contained. Iran has already signalled its capacity for escalation – targeting Gulf states, and disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through global energy markets. A full-scale civil war could ignite sectarian tensions, across the region, turning instability into a wildfire. For Gulf nations, this is an uncomfortable bind: uninvolved in the war’s initiation, yet deeply affected by its consequences. Their calls for restraint – to both Washington and Tehran – have so far gone unheard.
Yes, the board is set, major pieces are in motion. But in this dangerous middle game, the final outcome remains uncertain – and potentially far more destabilising than opening moves suggested.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/17/middleeast/uss-tripoli-marines-middle-east-iran-intl
END OF ARTICLE
