Kamal Ghorui
Rupee stood firm on Monday, gaining 33 paise to reach 92.85 against the US dollar in early trade. This follows intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, as the bank stepped in to support the currency. The RBI tightened norms to curb speculative positions and capped banks’ net open positions at $100 million, even as global developments continued to pose risks. The currency opened weak in the interbank foreign exchange market, at 93.13 against the greenback but strengthened as trading progressed, touching 92.85. The gain comes after a strong showing in the previous session on Thursday, when the currency surged 152 paise to close at 93.18, one of its sharpest single-day rises in recent years, following a series of steps by the central bank to tighten rules in the onshore forward market. Markets were shut on Friday for Good Friday. The RBI’s decision to cap banks’ net open positions at $100 million is seen as part of a broader effort to limit speculative bets, with traders indicating that the impact of these measures is beginning to reflect in the rupee’s movement. Despite the uptick, underlying pressures remain. Forex market participants pointed to continued foreign capital outflows, a strengthening US dollar, and firm crude oil prices as factors weighing on the domestic currency. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty has added to the cautious sentiment. Tensions on the global front intensified after US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran, setting a deadline until Tuesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cautioning that non-compliance could trigger attacks on its power infrastructure. Offering a near-term outlook, CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said, “On one side, RBI’s actions are clearly working. As banks continue to unwind dollar positions ahead of the April 10 deadline, the rupee may strengthen further toward the 91.50–92.00 range.” He also flagged the risks ahead, saying that persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices could once again strain India’s macroeconomic indicators. “In that scenario, the rupee may find it difficult to sustain gains and could move back toward the 94.00 levels after stabilizing at lower levels. But the bigger picture remains clear volatility is here to stay,” he said. Elsewhere, the dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, edged up 0.14 per cent to 100.17. Brent crude futures were also higher, rising 0.66% to $109.75 per barrel. Domestic equity markets opened on a weak note, with the Sensex down 270.13 points at 73,049.42, while the Nifty slipped 93.60 points to 22,619.50. Data from the exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors remained net sellers on Thursday, offloading equities worth Rs 9,931.13 crore.
