Kamal Ghorui
Rupee depreciated against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, falling to levels of 93.71, down 18 paise from its Monday closing. On Monday, the rupee had breached the 94 per dollar mark intra-day before closing flat at 93.53.Experts have indicated that if oil prices stay elevated for the remainder of the month, particularly above $100 per barrel, the currency could move into the 94–95 per dollar range over the next one to two weeks.Since the onset of the Iran conflict, the rupee has depreciated by nearly 3% against the US dollar and has fallen 8.7% so far in the current fiscal year. Market sentiment continues to shift swiftly in response to unfolding developments, including statements by US President Donald Trump on social media and updates from Iranian military officials.Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan expects the rupee to trade with a negative bias as deteriorating global sentiments and geopolitical tensions may keep it under pressure. “However, time-to-time intervention by the Reserve Bank may support the rupee at lower levels,” he said, adding that the USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 93.60-94.40,” he said according to a PTI report.“In a market like this, the risk is unlimited and there is no particular range. The world can handle a price shock, but risk increases exponentially when there is an energy shortage. And hence we are seeing prices increase to levels where it destroys demand,” Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency at Kotak Securities told ET..“If oil prices continue to be above $100 per barrel for one more week, then the rupee is definitely going to drift weaker. It may pause a bit at 94/$1, but eventually move to 94.50/$ to 95/$ levels,” Banerjee said.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
