Kamal Ghorui
Oil prices rose on Friday with Brent Crude climbing above $96 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude near $99 a barrel, as markets reacted to renewed supply risks in the Middle East.In the early hours of trade, Brent crude rose by 0.87% to $96.75 per barrel while WTI was up by 1.06% to $98.91 per barrel, Reuters reported. The benchmarks extended gains as investors weighed fresh attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and ongoing uncertainty around flows through the Strait of Hormuz despite a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran.The prices rose following attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, which disrupted production and added to concerns over global supply stability. Markets also continued to factor in a risk premium linked to the partial disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.“The initial wave of relief following President Trump’s two-week ceasefire announcement has quickly given way to underlying doubts,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.Iran and the United States agreed earlier this week to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, but fighting has continued even after the announcement, keeping energy markets on edge.“All eyes remain firmly on tanker tracker flows through the Strait of Hormuz for any signs of increased activity ahead of peace talks scheduled in Pakistan on Friday,” Sycamore added.Analysts said that Pakistan is expected to push for a more durable peace agreement in the talks, but may struggle to enforce terms that ensure full reopening of the key shipping corridor.Iran has also indicated that any longer-term arrangement could involve charging fees for vessels passing through the strait, a proposal that has faced strong resistance from Western governments and the United Nations shipping agency.The crucial artery for global oil and gas flows has been severely disrupted since the conflict began on February 28, when US and Israeli strikes triggered retaliatory escalation and partial closure of the waterway.Energy analysts warn that prices could rise sharply if disruptions persist. Brent crude could potentially reach $190 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted, according to estimates from energy consultancy Stratas Advisors.“If Iran allows increasing flows the price of oil will be more moderated, but still well above pre-war levels,” the report added.Adding to supply concerns, attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure have cut output by around 600,000 barrels per day and reduced throughput on key pipelines by nearly 700,000 barrels per day, according to the Saudi Press Agency.JPMorgan analysts said that the latest developments “shift the narrative from episodic disruption to a measurable supply shock,” as multiple facilities across the Gulf continue to face operational damage.Since the start of the conflict, nearly 50 energy infrastructure assets across the region have been hit, with around 2.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity taken offline, according to JPMorgan estimates.
