Kamal Ghorui
With the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting global oil supplies, several Asian countries are turning to Russian oil to fill the gap caused by the Iran war.Energy-starved nations in the region are taking advantage of US sanction waivers to secure Russian crude, Bloomberg reported. The Philippines recently received its first cargo of ESPO crude in nearly six years, while South Korea’s first Russian naphtha shipment of the year has arrived at Daesan port and is awaiting unloading. Sri Lanka and other countries are also in talks with Moscow over potential shipments.
Why are countries looking towards alternatives?
The war in the Middle East, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, has created a severe energy crunch. The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route, has left regional refiners scrambling for alternatives.India, for example, meets nearly 88% of its oil needs through imports and consumes about 5.8 million barrels per day, with 2.5–2.7 million barrels traditionally sourced from the Middle East. Shipments via the strait handle roughly 55% of India’s LPG imports and 30% of LNG used for power generation and fertilisers.“Incremental Russian crude imports in March could reach 1–1.2 million bpd, narrowing the shortfall from Hormuz exposure to around 1.6 million bpd,” said Sumit Ritolia, analyst at Kpler.Refineries are also optimising domestic LPG output, though even a 10–20% rise in production would only cover roughly half of total demand, making imports critical.
Middle East supply risks for Asia
Asia is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy, leaving it exposed to disruptions. Countries like China, Japan and South Korea face particular vulnerability:
- China: Imports around half its crude from the Middle East and holds strategic reserves estimated at 900 million barrels.
- Japan: Nearly 95% of crude imports from the Middle East; emergency reserves cover 254 days of consumption.
- South Korea: 70% of crude and 20% of LNG from the Middle East; reserves sufficient for 208 days.
India’s growing reliance on Russian crude
India’s purchases of Russian crude surged about 50% in March, rising to 1.5 million barrels per day from 1.04 million bpd in February. Refiners including Indian Oil Corporation and Reliance Industries have bought nearly all available cargoes on the spot market following US waivers.Russia’s oil has increasingly become a larger part of China’s oil mix, while India continues to source significant volumes from the Middle East where possible. Strategic reserves and a strong refining sector have helped cushion the supply shock.“There’s no other choice. Refineries that do not have much flexibility will be the first to look for Russian crude, as it is a relatively easy replacement for Middle Eastern supplies,” said June Goh, analyst at Sparta Commodities.Russia has emerged as a beneficiary of the conflict, with higher crude prices and US waivers increasing demand for its exports. The conflict in Iran has also shifted global attention away from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital maritime corridor, handling about 20% of the world’s oil trade and large portions of LPG and LNG imports for Asia. Any disruption threatens energy availability and shipping flows, intensifying pressure on governments and refiners to secure alternative supplies like Russian crude.
