Kamal Ghorui
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are moving up but the lack of any major positive catalyst may limit the upside this week, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Bullions prices started the current week on a lacklustre note amid sideways trading moves seen with market participants awaiting fresh cues on the geopolitical & policy front. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new framework following a Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping tariffs led to a new global levy of 15%, the maximum allowed under the statute – on items imported into America. This, in turn, fueled concerns about retaliatory measures and potential economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains, which kept the losses limited in the precious metals complex. US President Donald Trump will take centre stage early morning on Wednesday for his State of the Union address, using the high-profile platform to defend his turbulent second term & make a final pitch ahead of November’s congressional elections or midterm election.Spot Gold spiked to three week highs following the US decision on 15 % tariff’s as it kept the bulls in limelight but prices were also seen lacking sustained buying in start of week as traders awaited fresh comments from US presidents on tariff policies. The US Dollar (USD) attracted fresh buyers in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish outlook released last week. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the commodities including gold.Meanwhile, data released on Friday last week showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 2.9% over the 12 months through December. Furthermore, the core gauge, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, advanced 3.0% YoY, reaffirming bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would not cut rates in March. However, traders are still pricing in the possibility of two 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts by the Fed this year.
Gold Price Outlook:
Despite sideway’s moves seen at the start of week, broad bias stays supportive for precious metal in the coming weeks.Weekly View:Spot Gold (CMP $ 5170/Oz) –Sideways to Positive bias with support at $5,090–5,050/Oz levels.Spot Silver (CMP $ 87.90/Oz)–Sideways to Positive bias with higher side target at 92 – 93/Oz.
- The risk of a military conflict between the US & Iran persists this week which may contribute to the precious metal’s move higher. However prices could trade sideways before the negotiations from the US & Iran take place in Geneva on Thursday following the submission of a detailed nuclear proposal by Iran.
- Reports suggest that US President Donald Trump is considering a potential military strike against Iran in the coming days and could pursue a larger assault later if diplomacy fails to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
- From a technical perspective, the strong follow-through move up at the start of the new week validates last Friday’s breakout above the $5,090/oz mark and favors further upside momentum. However, lack of a positive catalyst fails to underpin sustained upside this week while a test of upside till $ 5,320 – 5,370 cannot be ruled out in coming weeks.
- Meanwhile Silver and other metals could also see higher trading volumes as China markets reopen on Tuesday in the current week following a long holiday. Overall Silver is expected to continue building on their recent advances in the current week as investors turn to traditional safe-haven assets.
- Short term traders to also track a series of important macroeconomic releases including the US Producer Price Index, consumer confidence figures, and weekly initial jobless claims along with speeches from influential FOMC members this week, could provide some impetus.
- Positive outlook persists for precious metals for medium to long terms as CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in the possibility of three 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts by the Fed this year, which should act as a tailwind for bullions complex.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
