Kamal Ghorui
Gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish as global de-dollarisation, rising fiscal stress and escalating geopolitical tensions reshape the global financial order, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL).In its latest Precious Metals Quarterly Report, the brokerage said gold prices crossed the $5,000 per ounce mark in early 2026, marking one of the strongest long-term bull phases in modern history.The firm said gold has entered a “structural repricing phase,” signalling the beginning of a new supercycle rather than a short-term cyclical rally.
Target of $6,000 in 12 months, $7,500 medium term
MOFSL expects Comex gold to settle towards $6,000 per ounce — equivalent to around Rs 1.85 lakh per 10 grams domestically — over the next 12 months. It also sees the potential for prices to move towards $7,500 per ounce in the medium term if geopolitical and fiscal pressures intensify.“The long-term outlook for gold remains positive. As global reserves gradually diversify away from dollar-centric assets and physical supply remains constrained, gold prices are likely to stay supported around and above $5,000 per ounce,” Navneet Damani, head of research, Commodities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, as quoted by news agency PTI.Damani added that the current cycle is being driven not just by inflation, but by confidence — or the lack of it — in fiscal and monetary systems.
Gold rises despite positive real rates
The report highlighted that gold continued to climb even when real interest rates were positive between 2023 and 2025 — a period when prices would typically decline.This trend indicates that investors are increasingly worried about mounting global debt levels and the long-term stability of fiscal and monetary frameworks.“Gold’s strength despite positive real interest rates shows a clear shift in investor thinking. Real returns are increasingly seen as temporary and policy-driven, which reduces the cost of holding gold and strengthens its role as a safeguard against broader financial risks,” Manav Modi, analyst – commodities, MOFSL, said.
Geopolitical tensions, supply constraints add support
According to the report, rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Asia, along with renewed trade tensions and tariff-related disruptions, have heightened inflation and currency volatility, making gold more attractive as a neutral and reliable asset.Damani noted that as fiscal stress increases and questions emerge over monetary independence, gold’s role as non-sovereign money has gained prominence, leading to a structural shift in demand.The brokerage also pointed to tight global physical supply conditions supporting prices. Limited mine output, shrinking inventories across major exchanges and rising production costs have kept precious metal prices elevated.
Domestic demand and central bank buying
On the domestic front, rupee depreciation and strong retail demand have further supported gold prices. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen renewed inflows after years of decline, the report said.Central banks have remained consistent buyers, adding around 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for four consecutive years as part of efforts to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on dollar-based assets.Overall, MOFSL expects gold to remain well supported over the long term, driven by reserve diversification, constrained supply growth and ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
