Kamal Ghorui
Oil prices inched higher on Thursday after suffering their steepest single-day fall since April 2020, as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and renewed tensions in the Middle East kept markets on edge. Brent crude moved back towards $97 a barrel, rebounding from a 13% on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate also traded close to that mark. As of 7:55 am IST, Brent crude was trading around $96.96, up 2.7% while WTI stood at $96.82 or 2.1% up.The bounce came amid mixed signals over the status of the key oil transit route. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency claimed that tanker movement through the strait had been halted following Israeli strikes in Lebanon. However, US Vice President JD Vance pushed back on that account, stating, “we are seeing signs that the straits are starting to reopen.” The partial recovery follows a dramatic slide in oil prices a day earlier, when crude dipped below $95 per barrel after US President Donald Trump stepped away from threats to intensify action against Iran. Instead, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire shortly before a deadline he had set for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow oil shipments to resume. At the time, benchmark US crude tumbled 16.4% to settle at $94.41 per barrel after briefly nearing $91 earlier in the session. Brent crude dropped 13.3% to $94.75 per barrel. At the height of concerns around the conflict, Brent had earlier surged past $119, and remains above the roughly $70 level seen before the war.Crude prices are still elevated as compared to before the war, reflecting persistent concerns that hostilities could resume. The ceasefire itself has appeared uncertain, with Iranian state media and the White House offering conflicting accounts on whether the Strait of Hormuz had been shut again. Since the start of the conflict, Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil supplies, often warning of serious consequences if those demands were not met. Those deadlines have frequently been postponed. The direction of oil prices now hinges on how quickly tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can normalise. While the White House indicated there had been an increase in ship movements, independent analysts reported no visible change in traffic.
