Kamal Ghorui
With “dhul and pepa” echoing through the air and the fragrance of “kopou phool” heralding the arrival of spring and Bihu, Assam is also witnessing a parallel rise in political heat, as the state’s electoral battleground begins to intensify.The battle is far from routine. It is a defining contest that could reshape the state’s political landscape, a test of whether the BJP can finally secure a majority on its own with a high-stakes face-off between Himanta Biswa Sarma and Gaurav Gogoi, and a campaign charged with emotive issues ranging from identity politics to the Zubeen Garg death probe.At the heart of this election lies a deeper churn in Assam’s politics. The BJP is looking to consolidate its gains through governance, welfare outreach and its “jati, mati, bheti” plank, while the Congress is attempting a reset by projecting new leadership and stitching alliances to tap into anti-incumbency and social coalitions.Adding a new layer to this contest are the post-delimitation realities, which have redrawn constituency boundaries and altered the electoral arithmetic, particularly in minority-dominated seats. These changes, alongside evolving voting patterns, make a look at past election trends crucial to understanding what lies ahead.
A snapshot of past elections
Assam’s current Assembly reflects a coalition-driven mandate, with the BJP leading the 126-member House with 64 MLAs, supported by allies AGP (9), UPPL (7) and BPF (3). The opposition is led by the Congress with 26 seats, followed by the AIUDF with 15, along with one CPM member and an Independent. The numbers underline how alliances have remained central to government formation in the state.The BJP’s rise in Assam began in 2016 when it ended Congress’s 15-year rule, but it fell just short of a majority with 60 seats. The pattern repeated in 2021, with the party again winning 60 seats, relying on allies to cross the halfway mark of 63. Despite being the dominant force, the BJP has so far been unable to secure a majority on its own in the Assembly.A similar trend is visible in Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP’s seat tally has plateaued at nine seats in both 2019 and 2024, after increasing from seven in 2014. However, its vote share has steadily grown, pointing to consolidation of support. Heading into 2026, with delimitation changes, welfare outreach and a governance plank, the party is aiming to convert this consolidation into a standalone majority.
High-stake contests
State elections are set to witness a series of high-stakes battles, with the spotlight firmly on a marquee face-off between chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Congress challenger Gaurav Gogoi.As the BJP eyes a third consecutive term, the Congress is attempting a comeback by projecting a new leadership face, turning the polls into a referendum on governance, strategy, and political narratives in the state.
Sarma vs Gogoi: The battle for the top job
Few contests in recent Assam politics have carried as much symbolic weight as this one. Sarma, widely seen as the BJP’s chief strategist in the Northeast, has been a dominant force in state politics since the early 2000s. Representing Jalukbari since 2001, he has steadily expanded his winning margins, culminating in a record victory in 2021. He will be contesting from Jalukbari constituency.On the other side, Gaurav Gogoi is stepping into the assembly arena for the first time, contesting from Jorhat and positioned as the Congress’s chief ministerial face. The Congress leader’s main contestant is BJP’s sitting MP Topon Gogoi.His recent Lok Sabha win from Jorhat, despite an aggressive BJP campaign, has injected momentum into the party. His elevation as state Congress president, despite political attacks from the BJP, signals a high-risk, high-reward strategy by the party to directly challenge Sarma’s dominance.
Legacy seats and tight races
Beyond the headline clash, several constituencies are set to host intense battles rooted in legacy and narrow margins. Debabrata Saikia, the leader of opposition, will once again contest from Nazira, a seat long associated with his family. His father, former chief minister Hiteswar Saikia, and his mother Hemoprava Saikia had both previously represented the Nazira constituency.Having scraped through with a razor-thin margin in 2021, Saikia now faces a tougher test to retain his stronghold.Similarly, Ripun Bora, a former Rajya Sabha MP and state Congress chief, returns to the electoral fray from Barchalla. His past experience as a minister and legislator adds weight to his candidacy, but the shifting political ground in Assam makes his contest one to watch closely.
Switches, alliances and political realignments
The elections also reflect the fluid nature of Assam’s political landscape, marked by shifting loyalties and alliances. Ajanta Neog, once a Congress stalwart and now a BJP minister, will seek to extend her long winning streak from Golaghat. Her political switch in 2020 and subsequent elevation in the BJP government underline the party’s strategy of consolidating experienced leaders.Meanwhile, leaders like Biswajit Daimary and Atul Bora represent the importance of regional alliances within the NDA framework. Their constituencies will test not just individual popularity but also the strength of coalition politics in the state.Adding to the churn, Pradyut Bordoloi resigned from the Congress, ending his long association with the party amid allegations of internal mistreatment, before joining the BJP in the presence of CM Himanta Biswa Sarma and state BJP president Dilip Saikia.
Regional forces and disruptors
Regional players and independent voices are also expected to influence the electoral dynamics. Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi, who emerged as a symbol of resistance during the anti-CAA protests, will once again contest from Sivasagar. His political journey, from activism to electoral success, continues to challenge mainstream parties.The regional outfit joined the opposition alliance after finalising a seat-sharing arrangement, becoming part of a six-party bloc that includes the Congress. The move is expected to strengthen opposition unity on the ground, potentially reshaping contests in key constituencies.Another key figure is Aminul Islam, a three-term MLA whose political career has been marked by controversy and legal battles. His shift to Rupahihat for the upcoming polls adds an additional layer of intrigue, especially in constituencies where minority votes play a decisive role.
What parties will campaign on
The campaign narrative is once again expected to be anchored in competing visions of identity, governance and inclusion. For the ruling NDA, led by the BJP, the familiar plank of “jati, mati, bheti” (community, land and homeland) is likely to remain central, a framing that blends cultural identity with political messaging on protection of indigenous rights and territorial integrity. This has, over the years, been paired with a strong emphasis on development, welfare delivery and governance.The Congress and its allies, on the other hand, are expected to pitch a counter-narrative centred on social cohesion, constitutional safeguards and inclusive growth. Their campaign is likely to focus on anti-incumbency, protecting minority rights, addressing alleged exclusions, and questioning whether development has been equitable and just across communities.Against this backdrop, the Assam polls are set to witness a sharp contest over key issues that have long defined the state’s politics, as well as newer flashpoints that have emerged in recent years.
Infiltration
The question of infiltration is once again set to dominate the political discourse. Rooted in the legacy of the Assam agitation and the Assam Accord, the issue continues to carry deep political and emotional resonance. The BJP-led government is likely to project its actions as steps towards fulfilling the Accord’s provisions, particularly in safeguarding the identity of indigenous Assamese communities. The opposition, however, is expected to argue that these promises remain unfulfilled, and accuse the government of targeting genuine Indian citizens under the guise of acting against illegal immigrants. The debate is also likely to play out around the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), with both sides seeking to mobilise their respective constituencies, especially in minority-dominated areas.
Eviction drives
Closely linked to this is the contentious issue of eviction drives. The ruling alliance is expected to highlight its efforts to reclaim encroached land, including forest areas and religious institutions, framing it as a necessary administrative step. In contrast, opposition parties are likely to describe these actions as a humanitarian crisis, pointing to displacement, loss of livelihoods, and the disproportionate impact on vulnerable communities.
Child marriage crackdown debate
The crackdown on child marriage is another issue that could shape the campaign narrative. The government has projected the arrests and legal action under the POCSO Act as a strong measure against a social evil. The opposition, however, is expected to question the implementation, alleging selective targeting and raising concerns about its social impact.
Development vs distribution
Development and welfare will form a central plank of the ruling alliance’s campaign. Infrastructure expansion across roads, railways, airports, and waterways, along with investments such as the Tata semiconductor project and agreements from the Advantage Assam summit, are likely to be highlighted as markers of progress. Welfare schemes, particularly those aimed at women, direct financial assistance, and employment generation through large-scale recruitment drives, will also be emphasised. The BJP and its allies are expected to underline their outreach to tea garden communities, a key voter base that has shifted significantly in their favour over recent years.
Welfare politics and women voters
The opposition, meanwhile, is likely to counter this narrative by questioning the distribution and inclusiveness of development. It may argue that growth has been uneven and has come at the cost of land and livelihoods of indigenous populations. Welfare delivery, particularly for women, could also come under scrutiny, with critics pointing to concerns over safety and alleged gaps in implementation.
The Zubeen Garg case
In addition to these policy issues, emotive concerns may also find space in the campaign. The death of popular singer Zubeen Garg and the subsequent demand for justice is likely to be invoked by opposition parties to question the government’s intent, while the ruling side is expected to emphasise the steps taken, including the formation of a Special Investigation Team and arrests in the case.
A SWOT analysis of key parties highlights their prospects and hurdles:
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)Strengths: Himanta Biswa Sarma has emerged as one of the BJP’s most assertive regional leaders, closely aligned with the party’s central leadership. The campaign is centred on issues such as border security and illegal immigration, key themes associated with his tenure.The BJP-led NDA, which secured a majority in 2021, has maintained strong organisational control across the state. The BJP in Assam benefits from a governance pitch centred on welfare schemes and infrastructure development.Another major advantage is the wave of high-profile defections in its favour. Sarma’s own exit from the Congress in 2015 triggered a broader shift, and since then, several Congress and BPF leaders have joined the BJP.Weaknesses: By 2026, the BJP-led alliance will have been in power in Assam for a decade, raising the risk of anti-incumbency. Voter concerns around governance, employment and rising prices could become key issues.The Congress has also stepped up its attacks on the Sarma government, which may influence voter sentiment in certain regions.Opportunities: A divided opposition remains one of the BJP’s biggest advantages. The exit of senior leaders from the Congress has exposed organisational weaknesses within the party, potentially benefiting the BJP.The issue of illegal migration continues to be a central electoral theme in Assam, and the BJP’s strong positioning on the matter could resonate with a large section of voters.Threats: The possibility of a Congress revival remains a key concern. The party is attempting to rebuild under leaders like Gaurav Gogoi and is making efforts to regain lost ground ahead of the elections.
Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)
Strength: The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) draws its biggest strength from being part of the NDA, with three members in the state cabinet. The party is expected to benefit from its alliance with the BJP and continues to push its core plank of regionalism to appeal to Assamese voters.Weakness: Internal infighting remains a major concern. Several senior leaders have expressed dissatisfaction over limited cabinet representation and repeated nominations of select individuals to the Rajya Sabha. The party’s electoral strength has also declined, with its Assembly tally dropping from 14 seats in 2016 to nine in 2021.Opportunity: AGP is likely to leverage its alliance with the BJP and highlight the performance of the outgoing government to improve its electoral prospects.Threat: Discontent within the party and a perceived shift away from its regional identity pose key challenges.
Bodoland People’s Front (BPF)
Strength: The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) is banking on its recent victory in the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) polls. The party aims to consolidate its position in the 15 seats across Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa, Udalguri and Tamulpur.Weakness: The BPF faces stiff competition from fellow NDA ally United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), which is also eyeing all 15 seats. Both parties draw support from Bodo tribal communities, leading to direct competition.Opportunity: The party will attempt to capitalise on its BTC success and consolidate Bodo votes in its favour.Threat: Vote division between BPF and UPPL, along with competition from non-Bodo voters, could impact its performance.
All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)
Strength: AIUDF emerged as a key opposition player in 2021 with 16 seats. Its strength lies in constituencies with a significant Bengali-speaking Muslim electorate.Weakness: The party is currently not part of any alliance and has seen a decline in popularity. This was evident in the Lok Sabha elections, where party chief Badruddin Ajmal lost the Dhubri seat by a large margin.Opportunity: AIUDF may try to regain lost ground by attracting voters from the Congress, particularly in constituencies with overlapping vote bases.Threat: Internal dissent and possible defections, along with voter dissatisfaction, could further weaken the party.
Raijor Dal
Strength: Raijor Dal has built a grassroots presence in parts of Upper Assam. Its leader Akhil Gogoi had won the Sivasagar seat as an Independent in the last Assembly elections, even while in jail during anti-CAA protests.Weakness: The party’s inability to reach a seat-sharing agreement with the Congress could lead to vote division, potentially benefiting the BJP.Opportunity: It may gain from Congress defections in Upper Assam and leverage its local organisational strength.Threat: Limited electoral experience and lack of coordination with opposition parties could hamper its performance.
New calculations in Assam’s poll scene
Mainland parties are also recalibrating their strategies in Assam’s evolving political landscape ahead of the April 9 Assembly elections.The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has announced its return to Assam politics after a 15-year gap, fielding 21 candidates for the April 9 Assembly elections. The party is targeting Assam’s sizeable tea tribe community, estimated at around 60 lakh people, who have a decisive role in nearly 36 constituencies. Many in this community trace their roots to Jharkhand.In its last outing in 2011, JMM contested nine seats but failed to win any, securing less than 1% vote share. Party insiders said its campaign will focus on development, dignity and tribal rights, with tea garden workers at the centre of its outreach.Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has released its first list of 14 candidates, fielding several new faces across the Brahmaputra Valley.With multiple parties vying for overlapping voter bases and constantly shifting alliances, the Assam elections are set to witness a fragmented and fiercely contested battle. The key question now is whether the Bharatiya Janata Party can deliver on its promises and retain its ground, or if the Congress can stage a meaningful comeback.
