Kamal Ghorui
Well into the third month of the Iran war, earlier assumptions of a short-lived conflict, have now been negated. Over the past week, even as physical shortages of oil seem to have eased, oil’s price for March 2027 delivery has risen nearly 10% to $83/barrel. It is now prudent to start measuring the impact on the economy, and for policy to begin adjusting. To estimate growth rates going forward, it is important to assess where we were before the war.
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