Kamal Ghorui
Global sea surface temperatures are nearing record highs again as El Niño conditions begin to develop, increasing the risk of more extreme weather and potentially making 2027 the hottest year ever recorded, the European Union’s climate monitor said Friday.The Copernicus Climate Change Service, overseen by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), revealed that ocean temperatures in April climbed close to the unprecedented levels recorded in 2024. Scientists warned that May could surpass all previous records.“It’s a matter of days before we are back in record-breaking ocean SSTs (sea surface temperatures) again,” Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at ECMWF, told AFP.Copernicus said April registered the second-highest sea surface temperatures ever observed globally, with marine heatwaves intensifying across the tropical Pacific and the US.The warming trend comes as climate scientists closely monitor the return of El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon linked to warming Pacific Ocean waters and shifts in atmospheric circulation. The World Meteorological Organisation has already warned that El Niño conditions could emerge between May and July.El Niño events often trigger extreme weather worldwide, including droughts, intense rainfall, heatwaves, and stronger storms. Combined with human-driven climate change, the phenomenon can significantly raise global temperatures.The previous El Niño contributed to 2023 and 2024 becoming the second-hottest years on record, respectively. Some forecasters now believe the upcoming event could rival the powerful “super” El Niño witnessed in the late 1990s.Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, an independent research organisation, recently said a strong El Niño could sharply increase the likelihood that 2027 will be the hottest year ever recorded.Burgess cautioned that accurately predicting El Niño’s strength this early remains difficult because forecasts made during the Northern Hemisphere spring are often less reliable. However, she stressed that even a moderate event would likely have major global impacts.“We’re likely to see 2027 exceed 2024 for the warmest year on record,” she said, noting that El Niño’s full effect is typically felt in the year following its peak.Scientists also emphasised that El Niño alone is not responsible for the extraordinary rise in ocean temperatures. Long-term global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions remains the primary driver, with oceans absorbing around 90% of the excess heat trapped by human activity.Copernicus said April 2026 was the third-hottest April globally, with average temperatures standing 1.43 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels recorded between 1850 and 1900.The report also highlighted worrying environmental trends, including Arctic sea ice remaining near historic lows and growing risks of drought and wildfires across Europe as hotter and drier summer conditions develop.For farmers, the climate threat is already becoming a reality. In Malaysia’s main rice-producing region, drought-hit fields have delayed planting and strained irrigation systems, prompting the government to prepare cloud-seeding operations. Farmers say rising fuel and irrigation costs are making cultivation increasingly difficult even before a potentially strong El Niño arrives.“We just keep seeing extremes,” Burgess said. “Every month we have more data that climate change is creating these extreme events.”
