Kamal Ghorui
With polling concluded in the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026, the spotlight has shifted to a set of high-stakes constituencies that are expected to influence the outcome when votes are counted on May 4. These key battles cut across regions and reflect the broader contest between the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), along with challenges from other parties in select pockets.Beyond these individual battles, regional dynamics also play an important role. The BJP is seen to have an advantage in north Bengal, where 54 seats went to polls, while the TMC appears better placed in Birbhum and West Burdwan due to its organisational strength. However, districts like Murshidabad, Bankura, Purulia and East Midnapore remain highly competitive with no clear frontrunner.
Key fights to watch out for:
1) Bhabanipur: Mamata Banerjee (TMC) vs. Suvendu Adhikari (BJP)
This is the most high-profile seat in the state. After his 2021 victory in Nandigram, Adhikari is challenging the chief Minister in her own bastion. A “Chakravyuh” strategy by the BJP to tie the TMC supremo to her urban constituency, banking on urban non-Bengali voters and anti-incumbency.
2) Nandigram: Suvendu Adhikari (BJP) vs. Pabitra Kar (TMC)
A symbolic battlefield since the 2007 land protests, Nandigram remains politically significant. The TMC has fielded Kar, a former associate of Adhikari, adding a personal dimension to an already intense contest.
3) Dinhata: Udayan Guha (TMC) vs. Ajay Roy (BJP)
Known for its volatility, Dinhata has seen extremely close contests in the past, including a margin of just 57 votes. This makes it a crucial swing seat in North Bengal.
4) Asansol Dakshin: Agnimitra Paul (BJP) vs. Tapas Banerjee (TMC)
Located in the industrial belt, this constituency reflects concerns around unemployment and the decline of the coal industry, making it a closely watched urban contest.
5) Bhangar: Nawsad Siddique (ISF) vs. Saokat Molla (TMC)
A volatile, minority-dominated seat, Bhangar is witnessing a tough fight. The ISF currently holds the seat, but the TMC is making a strong push to regain control.
6) Baharampur: Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (Congress) vs. Subrata Maitra (BJP) vs. Naru Gopal Mukherjee (TMC)
This three-cornered contest sees veteran leader Chowdhury attempting to reclaim his political ground after a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
7) Samsergunj: Mohammed Nur Alam (TMC) vs. Najme Alam (Congress) vs. Sasti Charan Ghosh (BJP)
While the TMC has held this seat in previous elections, recent unrest in Murshidabad has introduced uncertainty, making it a closely contested seat this time.
8) Panihati: Ratna Debnath (BJP) vs. Tirthankar Ghosh (TMC).
Panihati carries both political and emotional weight. The TMC has retained the seat since 2011, but the BJP’s candidate has brought a strong personal narrative into the campaign, making it a key test for the ruling party.A total of 59 constituencies across four districts are expected to shape early trends, accounting for nearly 39 per cent of the 152 constituencies that voted in the first phase. The elections have also been marked by controversy over the Special Intensive Review (SIR) of voter lists, which reportedly led to the deletion of around 91 lakh names and triggered strong reactions from opposition parties.With multiple closely fought contests across the state, the results from these key seats are likely to play a decisive role in determining the overall outcome when counting takes place on May 4.
