Kamal Ghorui
NEW DELHI: For decades, politics in Tamil Nadu has revolved around two Dravidian giants — DMK and AIADMK.Election after election, new entrants have tried to break this duopoly, but most have struggled to make a lasting impact.In the 2026 assembly elections, the bipolar contest was disrupted by a high-profile cinematic entry, as actor-turned-politician Vijay Thalapathy positioned himself as an alternative for the people in the state.Bihar’s Prashant Kishor or Delhi’s Kejriwal?In the run-up to the polls, Vijay’s political entry has drawn comparisons with two “startup” experiments — Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj.When Prashant Kishor entered Bihar’s electoral arena with Jan Suraaj, he attempted to challenge entrenched caste politics with a pitch focused on governance failures, migration and jobs. The message resonated, but votes did not follow.His party drew a blank in the Bihar assembly elections despite contesting all 243 seats.In contrast, Arvind Kejriwal quit his government job and launched Aam Aadmi Party after the India Against Corruption movement. In its first electoral outing, the party won 28 of 70 seats in Delhi and went on to dominate subsequent elections.Does Vijay stand a chance?Tamil Nadu’s political contest has largely been shaped by fronts led by DMK and AIADMK. Since 1967, power has alternated between these two, with smaller parties aligning with either side.This time, however, the race appears to be shifting towards a three-way contest, as a significant section of voters has remained outside the two main blocs.In 2016, AIADMK won 134 seats with over 40 per cent vote share, while DMK secured 89 seats with 32.1 per cent. Nearly 20 per cent of votes went to other parties, including BJP and Left.A similar trend played out in 2021. AIADMK-BJP alliance secured 39.71 per cent vote share, while DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance garnered around 45 per cent.In both elections, roughly one-fifth of the electorate voted outside the two dominant alliances. This 15–20 per cent unaligned vote remains critical for any third force.However, that does not automatically mean these votes will consolidate behind TVK.What exit polls suggestMost projections place TVK in the 10–24 seat range — a notable debut, but one that positions it more as a spoiler than a principal contender.P-Marq and Matrize estimate 10–12 seats, while Peoples Pulse projects 18–24, indicating traction among urban and younger voters.In such a scenario, Vijay’s party could split anti-incumbency votes, indirectly benefiting DMK.Axis MyIndia, however, offers a dramatic outlier, projecting 98–120 seats for TVK — numbers that, if realised on May 4, would propel Vijay to the centre of Tamil Nadu politics overnight.Even so, Tamil Nadu’s electoral landscape remains deeply rooted in Dravidian politics, strong party organisation and long-standing voter loyalties. Translating popularity into votes requires booth-level strength — an area where established players like DMK and AIADMK still hold an advantage.So, will Vijay be able to convert momentum into a mandate? Or will his debut mirror the fate of many other political experiments in Tamil Nadu?The answer will be clear on May 4.
