Kamal Ghorui
Mumbai: The rupee fell to a record closing low of 94.85 per dollar on Wednesday, declining by 31 paise from its previous close of 94.54, as rising oil prices, stalled geopolitical developments, and continued foreign outflows weighed on the currency.Pressure on the rupee came amid a broader weakening across Asian currencies, with the Philippine peso and the Indonesian rupiah also hitting record lows. The absence of a breakthrough in talks between the United States and Iran continued to cloud the outlook for global oil supplies, adding to uncertainty in currency markets.According to Bloomberg data, the real effective exchange rate, a trade-weighted measure against a basket of 40 currencies, fell to a 12-year low, indicating that the rupee remains undervalued despite recent weakness. The impact of earlier RBI measures to curb speculation has faded, allowing downward pressure to resume, although intermittent dollar sales by RBI helped limit sharper losses.Crude oil prices rose more than 3% to around $115 per barrel, putting pressure on oil-importing economies and their currencies.Rupee depreciation feeds directly into inflation through higher costs for crude oil, edible oils and capital goods. A commonly cited rule of thumb from market analysts is that a 5% depreciation (equivalent to about 4-5 rupees at current dollar denomination levels) adds about 1-2 percentage points to headline inflation.
