Kamal Ghorui
NEW DELHI: With not a very large gap between Left-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, the exit polls have predicted a neck and neck contest between both the rival factions. According to the poll of polls, UDF is expected to cross the majority mark with 72 seats in the 140 Kerala assembly. However, the LDF is expected to be not far behind the Congress-led faction with pollsters suggesting 63 seats for the ruling Front. Axis My India has predicted the widest margin between the LDF and the UDF, with 55 and 83 seats, respectively.PMARQ exit poll, on the other hand, has predicted majority for the ruling LDF with 75 seats.In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the LDF government that is in power. Kerala’s electoral history has typically been defined by alternating LDF and UDF govts. However, LDF’s consecutive victory in 2021 under Vijayan disrupted that pattern, making the 2026 contest a test of whether traditional anti-incumbency sentiment remains intact. A defeat for LDF would also diminish the presence of CPM in its last major stronghold.The campaign narrative has also undergone notable shifts. Early phases were dominated by issues such as corruption allegations, economic concerns, backdoor appointments, the Sabarimala gold heist controversy, and rehabilitation concerns of Wayanad landslide victims, alongside scandals involving opposition leaders. However, as campaigning intensified, these issues gave way to sharper political attacks, including allegations of covert alliances, communal polarisation debates, and direct exchanges between senior leaders.LDF has framed the election as a referendum on the “Pinarayi model”, highlighting welfare expansion, infrastructure development, and administrative centralisation. It has also promised an expanded welfare agenda if voted back to governance.UDF, on the other hand, has advanced a counter-narrative of “welfare with accountability”, questioning the efficiency, transparency, and fiscal sustainability of the govt’s programmes while banking on voter fatigue and economic concerns.Note: Exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be wrong on the result day (May 4).
