Kamal Ghorui
World can’t be held to ransom for Iran’s uranium. Opening Hormuz should be Trump’s priority
Last year, the world economy grew by 3.4%. This was a small increase, especially after Trump’s tariffs. In January, the IMF predicted that 2026 would also see 3.4% growth. Now it has cut that estimate to 3.1%, and its chief economist thinks growth may fall to 2.5%. The reason is the Hormuz crisis, which has become the biggest energy shock in history.
For the past 50 days, very little oil and gas have come out of the Gulf. Because ships can’t pass easily through the Hormuz Strait, Gulf countries have reduced production. One estimate says 500 million barrels of oil, worth $50bn, have already been lost — enough to meet US demand for a month. No LNG shipments have crossed Hormuz during this period. Shortages of fertiliser, aluminium, helium and sulphur have also appeared. This is affecting production of other metals like copper and nickel. If this continues, global growth may slow to 2%.
That is why reopening Hormuz quickly is very important. And the only permanent way to do that is through talks with Iran. The US and Israel have already seen the limits of war. Their strikes may have sunk many Iranian naval vessels, but Iran still has enough gunboats to cause trouble. On Saturday, two India-flagged ships were attacked. Iran also has missiles and drones. What military force may not achieve for months, talks might achieve now.
Last week actually began on a hopeful note. The US and Iran held their first round of talks. Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. Iran even suspended its blockade on Friday. Oil prices fell and stock markets rose. But after Iran’s latest gunboat action, the new week has begun with uncertainty again.
The tension is also high because the US-Iran ceasefire ends on Wednesday. Both sides say talks are making progress, but they still disagree over Iran’s uranium stockpile. When Iran relaxed its blockade on Friday, the US could have responded positively. Constantly humiliating your opponent rarely helps in making a deal. It was a chance to normalise shipping through Hormuz.
Until sea traffic returns to normal, Gulf countries will not increase oil and gas production. Shortages of aluminium, sulphur and other materials will continue. And the world economy will keep slowing. Trump has already postponed his meeting with Xi once. If he wants a warm welcome in China next month, he needs to help reopen Hormuz first.
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