Kamal Ghorui
The US is set to issue up to 2.4 million fewer green cards by the end of President Trump’s second term, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), Newsweek has reported. The reduction comes as the administration enforces stricter immigration rules, including tighter family sponsorship regulations, refugee caps, and travel bans affecting multiple countries.The NFAP estimates that legal immigration, which includes permanent residency through green cards, will drop significantly under Trump’s policies. In the 2023 fiscal year alone, 1,172,910 immigrants received permanent residence. However, the NFAP projects that 1,546,710 to 2,369,998 fewer immigrants will obtain green cards by January 2029.Impact on the workforce and employmentThe most significant decline is expected in the Immediate Relatives of US Citizens category, which accounted for 48% of all green cards in the 2023 fiscal year. The NFAP estimates that 941,625 to 1,654,770 fewer family members will gain permanent residence under the new restrictions.Newsweek reports that employers and universities are likely to feel the impact of these reductions first. “Fewer green cards mean fewer highly skilled workers staying in the US,” said NFAP analysts, highlighting concerns for sectors such as technology, healthcare, and research.Companies that rely on foreign talent for specialised roles may face staffing shortages. Maria Chen, human resources director at a major US software firm, told Newsweek, “If we cannot secure green cards for skilled foreign hires, it delays projects and may force us to look for talent outside the US.”Effects on healthcare and research sectorsHospitals and research institutions are also affected by the slowdown in legal immigration. Dr Samuel Rivera, director of a biomedical research lab, told Newsweek, “Graduate students and postdoctoral researchers from other countries are crucial to our work. Any reduction in green cards may push them to other countries, slowing innovation here.”The Trump administration has also capped annual refugee admissions at 7,500, far below the 125,000 ceiling set in the last year of President Biden’s administration. The NFAP estimates this policy will reduce legal immigration by roughly 470,000 over the four-year term.Additionally, a freeze on the diversity visa programme following a shooting at Brown University is expected to cut immigration by between 55,076 and 165,228 people. Although it remains unclear when the programme will resume, the NFAP projects a one-to-three-year disruption.Family sponsorship restrictions and policy changesRestrictions on the ability of US citizens to sponsor close relatives are expected to drive the largest drop in legal immigration. Newsweek reports that Trump’s policies also include a “public charge” rule, limiting immigration for individuals considered likely to rely on government benefits, and travel bans affecting 39 countries.“These measures not only affect individuals hoping to join family members but also influence career decisions and workforce planning,” NFAP analysts told Newsweek.Looking aheadWhile the precise number of green cards that will be denied remains uncertain, the policies are already prompting concern among employers, universities, and prospective immigrants. The NFAP warns that the combined effect of family sponsorship limits, refugee caps, and visa programme freezes could reshape US workforce dynamics over the next four years.
