Kamal Ghorui
US and Iran must turn their temporary truce into permanent peace. It’s in everyone’s interest
After 39 days of war, which left more than 2,000 Iranians dead, drove up energy prices, and pummelled stocks, Iran and US have agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Israel’s said it will go along with US, but won’t stop attacks on Lebanon, although that’s one of Iran’s pre-conditions. So, it’s a “fragile truce,” as Vance puts it. There have been violations already. An Iranian refinery was hit soon after truce was announced, then Iran struck infra in Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain. Still, the price of crude fell sharply on Wednesday, and stocks everywhere rallied. That’s because this truce is the least bad scenario right now. Far better than a long war that keeps Hormuz Strait blockaded, and results in a recession.
Markets may be up, but realists aren’t chuffed about the truce. There are simply too many unknowns in it, even though Trump claims, “Big money will be made…this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East.” For starters, there’s Hormuz. US says truce starts only after the strait reopens, but Iran insists ships will pass under its control. Then there’s Lebanon, where Hezbollah has agreed to halt strikes on Israel. But, will Israel pass up the chance to strike harder, while it doesn’t have to defend itself against Iran? Trump and other world leaders must press it to stop.
Iranian media claims US-Iran talks will start in Islamabad tomorrow, between Iran’s speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Vance. But there’s no American confirmation yet. The biggest question is, can both sides reconcile their differences in two weeks? Iran’s 10 demands include removal of all sanctions, which have hobbled it for 47 years, compensation for damage suffered in war, recognition of its right to enrich uranium, and removal of US troops from the region. It’s hard to imagine US agreeing to these, even though Trump’s said the list is a “workable basis on which to negotiate”. America’s 15 demands, which Iran rejected earlier, include surrender of its enriched uranium, and caps on its missile programme.
We can only hope they find common ground, or extend the truce to keep talking. Because, this war hurts everyone. RBI yesterday said it sees crude at $85 this year, whereas in Jan, crude seemed headed below $60 due to oversupply. Reduced remittances from Gulf countries, and slowdown in foreign demand, could also subdue growth in India this year. Everything depends on what happens over the next two weeks.
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