Kamal Ghorui
Precious metal prices in India are expected to remain moderately strong in fiscal year 2026–27, supported by ongoing global uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, fears of trade wars and concerns about a possible global recession are likely to boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, high interest rates may limit sharp price gains. The outlook comes after a strong performance in FY26. Silver futures jumped by Rs 1,41,431, or 142.2%, rising from Rs 99,461 per kg on April 1, 2025. Gold also rose sharply by Rs 60,258, or 67%, from Rs 90,503 per 10 grams during the same period. This strong rise was driven by several global factors, including trade tensions linked to Trump’s tariff policies, geopolitical issues, strong buying by central banks, limited supply and overall global economic uncertainty. “The outlook for gold and silver for fiscal 2026-27 will remain moderately bullish. Since the global economy is going through a rough patch due to geopolitical tensions, trade wars and fear of global recession, demand for safe-haven assets will rise,” Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking told PTI in an interview. Even after strong gains, prices saw a sharp fall towards the end of FY26. In March, gold fell by Rs 11,343, or 7%, while silver dropped by Rs 41,752, or 15% on the Multi Commodity Exchange. On this correction, he said, “Historically gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset will likely increase in the second phase of war situations when dollar gains get limited.” However, he added that if interest rates in the US and other major economies stay high for longer, it could limit further upside in bullion prices. Silver’s strong performance in FY26 was supported by a supply shortage that has continued for five years, rising demand from solar panels and electric vehicles, and higher investment through ETFs, which increased price movements in the smaller silver market. Looking ahead, silver is expected to stay moderately strong in FY27. Domestic prices may range between Rs 2.75–3.5 lakh per kg, depending on currency movements. In global markets, silver could trade between $85 and $100 per ounce. For gold, demand from central banks is expected to remain an important support factor. Purchases are likely to average 750–850 tonnes in 2026 and stay stable in 2027. “Economies such as India, Poland and Turkey will continue to lead the charge as they are replacing US dollar reserves with gold to bolster monetary sovereignty and hedge against geopolitical sanctions,” he added. In crude oil, supply is expected to rise in FY27 due to higher production from non-OPEC countries and slower global demand. This may reduce inflation, which can put pressure on gold and silver. A stronger rupee due to lower oil prices may also make precious metals cheaper in India. The US dollar is expected to remain unstable due to uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy. A stronger dollar, however, could limit gains, especially in silver. Overall, prices are expected to stay supported by global risks, central bank buying and industrial demand, even though volatility is likely to continue.
