Kamal Ghorui
OPEC+ may approve an oil output increase at its meeting on Sunday, though the move is expected to remain largely symbolic as key producers are unable to raise supply due to disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran, Reuters reported citing sources.Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to meet at 1300 GMT to discuss production quotas for May, with sources indicating that any increase would have little immediate impact on global supply.
The ongoing conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil transit route — since the end of February, sharply curtailing exports from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. These countries were among the few in the group with the capacity to raise output before the conflict.Other members, including Russia, are also unable to increase production due to Western sanctions and infrastructure damage linked to the war in Ukraine.Within the Gulf region, missile and drone attacks have caused significant damage to energy infrastructure. Officials say it could take months to restore normal operations and achieve production targets, even if the conflict ends and shipping through Hormuz resumes immediately.At its previous meeting on March 1, OPEC+ had agreed to a modest output increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April. However, the ongoing crisis has since triggered what is being described as the largest oil supply disruption on record, removing an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels per day — or up to 15% of global supply.Crude prices have surged to near four-year highs, approaching $120 per barrel. JPMorgan has warned that prices could rise above $150 — an all-time high — if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue into mid-May.While a fresh output hike may signal intent to boost supply once conditions stabilise, analysts say it remains largely theoretical under current constraints. Consultancy Energy Aspects described the proposed increase as “academic” as long as disruptions in the strait persist.
