Kamal Ghorui
Amid Strait of Hormuz-linked supply disruptions, India has reportedly sought a waiver from the US for buying liquified natural gas (LNG) from Russia. According to a Reuters report, India has approached the Donald Trump administration, asking for the waiver that would help ease supply constraints.According to two individuals aware of the developments, India and Russia have agreed to begin preparations for restarting direct supplies of liquefied natural gas from Russia, something that has not occurred since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict. One of the sources told Reuters that if India chooses to move ahead, discussions could wrap up within a matter of weeks, even though such an arrangement may risk breaching Western sanctions.
India Looks To Russian LNG To Ease Hormuz Supply Disruptions
The understanding to explore an LNG agreement was reached during a March 19 meeting in New Delhi between Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin and India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, the sources said according to Reuters.
Separately, India has advised domestic energy importers to prepare for a possible restart of Russian LNG purchases, one of the sources said. India has also reached out to the United States to explore the possibility of securing a waiver from sanctions, according to this source and another individual familiar with the matter.According to one of the sources, any fresh LNG agreement is expected to be less advantageous for India compared to the long-term supply contract signed between state-run GAIL and Russia’s Gazprom in 2012. “It is now a seller’s market,” the person said.Also Read | US-Iran war impact: India’s crude imports from Russia near all time highs; will such high numbers continue?Foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated last week that India is in discussions with multiple countries to ensure energy security, including sourcing LNG. Officials have also noted that India continues to import Russian liquefied petroleum gas, which is primarily used for cooking and is not subject to sanctions.India has already aggressively stepped up procurement of Russian crude oil after the US-Israel-Iran war disrupted supply of crude oil via the important maritime route Strait of Hormuz. Estimates from Kpler suggest that India has already bought around 50-60 million barrels of Russian crude since the start of the war in late February. The US has said that it has granted a 30-day waiver to India for purchasing Russian crude oil with an aim to keep global oil prices in check. Apart from crude oil disruptions, the supply of LPG and LNG have also been hit. India imports a big portion of its LPG and LNG needs and has been looking to step up procurement from alternative sources.
Global LNG Supplies Hit Due To Middle East Conflict
Yet another factor that has impacted LNG supplies is the attack on Middle East energy infrastructure. The US-Iran conflict has triggered consequences that extend well beyond the immediate spike in global oil and gas prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have resulted in damage to critical energy infrastructure across Gulf nations, raising concerns over future liquefied natural gas production and supply.The turmoil has unsettled the global LNG market, with higher prices, disruptions to key export facilities in Qatar and potential delays in upcoming projects creating uncertainty around demand outlook, particularly among cost-sensitive buyers in Asia.Also Read | Petrol, diesel price today: After excise duty cuts, will petrol and diesel rates in your city come down?“We expect this gas price crisis will lead some countries to reconsider growing their gas demand at the rate we previously forecast and so LNG demand growth will be lower than our pre-war forecast,” said Lucien Mulberg, an analyst at S&P Global.Supply constraints are expected to persist as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route handling around 20% of global LNG trade, and damage to Qatar’s liquefaction infrastructure have disrupted flows. The affected facilities could take 3 to 5 years to restore, sidelining about 12.8 million tonnes per year of capacity. As a result, consultancies including S&P Global, ICIS, Kpler and Rystad Energy have lowered their global supply estimates by as much as 35 million tonnes.This shortfall is equivalent to roughly 500 LNG cargoes, sufficient to meet over half of Japan’s annual LNG imports or cover Bangladesh’s requirements for nearly five years.Before the conflict, analysts had expected global LNG supply to grow by up to 10% this year, reaching between 460 million and 484 million metric tonnes, supported by new capacity additions mainly in the United States and Qatar, with demand projected to rise at a similar pace.S&P Global now estimates that exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates could decline by about 33 million tonnes this year. It has also cut its supply outlook by a further 19 million tonnes annually between 2027 and 2029, citing likely delays in Qatar’s North Field expansion and ADNOC’s Ruwais LNG projects currently under development.
