Kamal Ghorui
Iran, Ukraine, US have all targeted merchant shipping. That sets a dangerous pattern for global economy
After 16 cargo ships, including oil tankers, were hit within the first two weeks of Iran war, hundreds more dropped anchor in the Gulf, unwilling to risk vessel, cargo, and lives. There they remain, stranded. Meanwhile, oil, gas, fertiliser, aluminium, sulphur, helium, and many more commodities, have become scarce. This is Iran waging war by other means – holding maritime trade to ransom. In the north, Reuters estimates, Ukraine has disabled 40% of Russia’s oil export apparatus. Its attacks on ports and pipelines have reduced Russian oil flows by 2mn barrels a day – more than a third of India’s daily consumption. European seizures of Russia’s “shadow fleet” tankers have further thinned the flow. While all of these moves can be rationalised, their impact on the world is hard to justify.
It is a settled point that merchant ships, unless involved in military operations, should not be attacked. That’s because ships are what keeps the modern world running. Trade makes up roughly 60% of global GDP; ships handle over 80% of goods trade. And attacks on just a few vessels can effectively shut down entire routes. We’re seeing this in Hormuz Strait now, but it happened in Red Sea not long ago. A Houthi attack on tanker Marlin Luanda, and seizure of car carrier Galaxy Legend, forced shipping firms to change course. Two years have passed, but Red Sea traffic hasn’t returned to normal. Meanwhile, freight costs have risen due to longer routes.
We have, perhaps, forgotten the consequences of targeting merchant ships in war. Britain lost 2,426 merchant ships in WW2, US 1,768. Japan, which had built up the third largest fleet of passenger and cargo ships before the war, lost 2,346. By the time war ended, it was left without a single ship of over 1,000-tonne capacity. At that time, only militaries had capabilities to sink large vessels, now it’s a lot easier. Iran, Ukraine, and the Houthis, have demonstrated destructive capabilities of cheap drones, worth a few thousand dollars each. The havoc that states and state-sponsored bad actors can wreak is obvious. So, steps to build a new consensus on the safety of maritime trade are needed. Ordinarily, US would be expected to take the lead, but its actions against Venezuelan tankers in Jan cast doubt on this possibility. Developing nations, which suffer the most when commodities become scarce, and prices rise, must therefore take a stand on freedom of merchant and commercial vessels.
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