Kamal Ghorui
He fits the bill. But it’s a tough call
Should Modi mediate in the US-Israel vs Iran war? At least one head of govt, Finland’s president, has publicly said so. Some pundits have mused about this. More important, though, is Modi ticks all the mediator boxes. Let’s list them. He’s prominent on the global stage. He’s PM of a country that has friendly relations with all parties – US, Iran, Israel, Gulf countries. Modi has worked hard to take both India-Gulf and India-Israel relationships to the next level. He has excellent rapport with leaders of these countries. He has not let India-Iran ties suffer, either. Proof: he can talk to Iran to get some ships out through Hormuz. Yes, Trump’s US has been tough to deal with, like for every other country. But, Modi’s been clever in a quiet way to bring stability back to the relationship. With a trade deal nearly done, Russian oil, and probably even some Iranian oil, unsanctioned, flashpoints with US are gone.
Also, India has skin in the West Asian game – one crore Indians in Gulf, port projects in Israel and Iran, huge hydrocarbon imports, trade deals with major West Asian players, defence tech deals with Israel. Strategic autonomy has been India’s mantra for decades. Modi has practised this well – assertive but pragmatic. India has enough cred to talk to all parties. But, it isn’t so powerful that its intentions will be suspect – this point is crucial.
Yes, West Asia, always messy, is now a hot mess. Power, pride, and paranoia are driving the war. But, if backchannels are open, some pundits reckon they are, Modi’s can be another voice – a welcome one, for all parties – quietly urging disengagement. Oman and Qatar are thought to be the likely back channel mediators. Modi’s personal equations with Qatar’s Emir and Oman’s Sultan are excellent. Whether he should help in a mediation process, is a complex question – he has to, first, think of India’s interests. But, whether he’s a good choice as a mediator, is a simple question. He is.
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