Kamal Ghorui
China is reportedly pressing ahead with a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, a move that experts and officials warn could seriously endanger water security, ecology and livelihoods downstream in India. As the river enters India as the Brahmaputra, any large-scale intervention upstream is seen as a direct risk to millions who depend on its natural flow.Also Read | The Trump doctrine: How United States sees India in a China-first world According to CNN, the proposed $168bn hydropower system will harness a steep 2,000 metre drop in altitude through an intricate network of dams, reservoirs, tunnels and underground power stations.
For India, the concern is not just environmental.Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Pema Khandu had warned that the project could be used as a “ticking water bomb”, with China potentially controlling the timing and volume of water released into the Brahmaputra. Sudden discharges could trigger floods, while withholding water could dry out large stretches of the river during critical periods.Also Read | India-China ties: New Delhi eases entry norms for Chinese professionals; to issue visas for shorter periodMinister of state for external affairs, Kirti Vardhan Singh in August had issued a statement on the project stating that they are consistently monitoring the developments related to the Brahmaputra river.“The Government of India has taken note of reports about the commencement of construction of the mega dam project by China on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo (upper reaches of the Brahmaputra) River in Tibet. This project was first made public as far back as 1986 and since then, preparations have been underway in China,” the MEA had stated in response to an unstarred question in the Rajya Sabha.The MEA said that the government remained committed to safeguarding Indian interests in the region.“Government carefully monitors all developments relating to the Brahmaputra river, including plans by China to develop hydropower projects, and takes necessary measures to protect our interests, including preventive and corrective measures to safeguard life and livelihood of Indian citizens residing in downstream areas,” the statement said.Much of the Brahmaputra’s water comes from monsoon rains and tributaries within India. However, CNN reports expert’s claim that upstream manipulation can still disturb the river’s natural rhythm. Even limited changes could affect fertile floodplains, fisheries and groundwater recharge across Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, regions already vulnerable to climate stress.China has dismissed these concerns, as the Chinese foreign ministry has insisted that downstream countries will not be adversely affected.The technical scale of the project has also heightened fears. CNN quotes Brian Eyler, director of the Energy, Water and Sustainability Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, has described it as the most sophisticated hydropower system ever attempted, but also one of the riskiest.Any failure or miscalculation in such a seismically sensitive and ecologically fragile region could have cascading consequences downstream.Beijing’s management of the Mekong River has drawn repeated criticism from downstream nations, which accuse Chinese dam operators of worsening droughts by regulating water flow to suit power generation needs. The upstream developments have prompted India’s largest state-run hydropower company to push ahead with its own 11,200-megawatt project on the Brahmaputra, a move driven partly by fears of losing strategic and water security ground.Experts warn that competing mega projects on the same river system could worsen risks for both countries. Without cooperation and transparency, analysts caution, a dam-building race between India and China could undermine regional stability and place the future of the Brahmaputra and the millions who rely on it in jeopardy.
