Kamal Ghorui
EC’s made the voting schedule tight this time, can parties be tight-fisted with freebies?
Dates are out for 2026’s Indian Poll League. Four large states and a UT will vote between April 9-29, and results will be out on May 4. This round will be especially interesting because it’s the first after SIR. So, usual assumptions about vote shares, etc, do not apply. Regardless, there will be punditry. Can Congress reclaim Assam, can BJP wrest Bengal? Reams will be written on these, and the state of play in Tamil Nadu and Kerala also. And going by data, anything’s possible. In 2024 LS polls, Congress and BJP were neck-and-neck in Assam, in terms of vote share. BJP had closed the gap with Trinamool in Bengal. Tamil Nadu seems unlikely to turn, but BJP will be looking to grow there. Also in Kerala, where the fight is between LDF and Congress-led UDF.
In three of the four states, these polls are a test of incumbency. Assam and Kerala have had the same party/grouping in office for 10 years – while Mamata in Bengal is finishing 15. Even if voter fatigue isn’t a factor, incumbents aren’t taking chances. That means more displays of prodigality. Hours before EC’s presser, Bengal govt hiked honorarium for purohits and muezzins. More promises of unconditional cash transfers will follow as manifestos are rolled out. Such transfers are likely to cost India ₹1.7L cr this fiscal. RBI and Economic Survey have flagged “fiscal populism” as a risk for state finances, and even India’s sovereign borrowing costs, but who’s listening?
In terms of stakes, BJP has least to lose in this round as it governs only one of four poll-bound states. But it will be fighting zealously to expand. Pressure is on Congress, though, as it has solo govts in only three states now. Iran war and the resultant gas crisis have added a new variable to these contests. If shortages persist through March, voters will blame somebody. Although the political cost can’t be estimated beforehand. But since oil marketing firms are absorbing the higher cost of crude, BJP’s shielded on that side. Another unknown that EC must watch out for is political violence. It’s good that Bengal will poll in just two phases this time, down from six each in 2011 and 2016, eight in 2021, and seven in 2024 LS polls. While that signals confidence in security arrangements, there shouldn’t be a repeat of last time’s post-poll violence in Bengal, and elsewhere. Voters deserve a safe and fair poll season.
https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/
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