Kamal Ghorui
Why a war far away matters to your pocket money
Oil prices were already going up before a new war started this Saturday. Now, everyone is asking: How high will they go?
Last June, when there was a short 12-day fight, the price of a big barrel of oil jumped from $70 to $80. That’s a lot, but it wasn’t as bad as experts feared. This time, things look more serious. By Friday, the price was already $72.5. It’s expected to hit $75 today and could even reach $100 if the war drags on.
If the war lasts a long time, getting oil to countries like India will be hard for three main reasons:
- The Narrow Hallway: Most oil travels through a tiny strip of water called the Strait of Hormuz. If ships are being shot at, they can’t go through.
- Damaged Factories: Iran might attack the oil wells and factories in neighboring countries, meaning there’s less oil for everyone.
- The Long Way Round: If ships have to avoid the war zone, they have to sail all the way around the bottom of Africa. This takes much longer and costs 60% more just for the trip!
Why does this matter to you? Think of that narrow hallway (the Strait of Hormuz) like a water pipe. About 20 million barrels of oil flows through it every day. That is exactly how much oil India and China need every single day just to keep their cars moving and factories running.
Right now, India doesn’t have a ‘Plan B’. We stopped buying as much oil from Russia, so we really need the oil from West Asia. Other countries like the US or Brazil can’t send us extra oil right away.
The “Everything” Problem When oil hits $100, it isn’t just about the price of petrol for a car. It makes everything more expensive. Why? Because trucks need oil to deliver snacks to the store, and factories need oil to make toys. This is called inflation. It basically means your ₹100 won’t buy as much as it did last week.
Is there a way to stop it? Yes! It depends on the “Emergency Stash.” The US and China have huge underground tanks filled with millions of barrels of oil for emergencies.
If both countries start using their own stashes instead of buying more from the world, the pressure will ease and prices might go back down.
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