Kamal Ghorui
As motorists across the UAE wait for the March 2026 fuel price announcement, global oil markets are sending mixed signals. February brought relief at the pump, but a sharp rebound in crude prices, driven largely by renewed US-Iran tensions, is raising the possibility that March could reverse that trend.According to Khaleej Times, fuel became cheaper again in February. Prices for Super 98, Special 95 and E-Plus 91 were reduced by around eight to nine fils per litre, bringing them to Dh2.45, Dh2.33 and Dh2.26 respectively. That marked the second consecutive monthly cut since December. Diesel prices were also adjusted downward.However, the global oil picture has shifted.Khaleej Times reported that Brent crude crossed the $71 per barrel mark during February amid fears of a potential US-Iran military conflict. By Tuesday evening, Brent and WTI were trading at $66.31 and $71.38 per barrel respectively. The average closing price of Brent stood at $68.9 per barrel in February, compared to $63.47 the previous month.Energy analysts say geopolitics is now firmly in control of market sentiment.Daniel Yergin of S&P Global noted that oil currently carries about a $10 “premium” linked to uncertainty surrounding US-Iran tensions, with Brent touching $72.33 on February 23.Norbert Rücker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer, said the US-Iran conflict is dominating the oil market and that prices are inflated with what he described as a “decent geopolitical risk premium.”“A military clash seems inevitable, but such an escalation does not necessarily come hand-in-hand with oil supply disruption, as the past years have shown on multiple occasions. More importantly, today’s oil market is very supply-resilient, thanks to ample storage, production exceeding consumption, and spare output capacity,” he said.He added: “While we are unsure whether the current bounce will top out in the high $70s or high $80s, we have more confidence in the view that the risk premium will wane and oil prices return to below $60 towards mid-year. Amidst today’s geopolitics, we stick to our neutral view.”Meanwhile, insurance premiums for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz have risen after Tehran temporarily closed the strait for several hours, according to earlier reporting by Khaleej Times. The waterway is a critical artery for global energy flows.Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said: “Oil markets have also come back into focus as tensions in the Middle East intensify. Brent crude has moved above the $70 level, supported by rising geopolitical risk. Iran’s strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil supply flows, means any disruption could have significant consequences.”The UAE reviews petrol and diesel prices monthly, basing adjustments on the previous month’s average global oil prices and refined fuel costs. When crude rises, pump prices tend to follow; when it falls, relief usually reaches motorists.With Brent averaging higher in February than in January, and geopolitical risks still simmering, March prices may not offer the same breathing room drivers enjoyed last month.
